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Interesting! Danielle, would be interested in figuring out how I could help you automate this through Seed-DB (http://www.seed-db.com http://www.seed-db.com)

by jedc 14y ago

jessedhillon 14y ago
I've been browsing this for the past week or so and was wondering -- how do you generate your valuation estimates? Seems like the sum of exits for something like YC could be off by as much as $250M if you consider that the low quality estimates could vary by 100%+ from their true value. http://www.seed-db.com/accelerators/view?acceleratorid=1011 http://www.seed-db.com/accelerators/view?acceleratorid=1011
- jedc 14y ago
  There are no valuation estimates; just estimates on sale prices when companies have exited. Luckily the biggest exits are the ones that have press interest and thus have a price attached. My methodology depends on research into previous funding rounds and a bit of guesswork, influenced by how the exit is framed. (Is it an acquihire? Or a traditional exit?) The reason I put the H/M/L indications is to be up-front and honest about it. You're correct in that they could be off, but $250million is <25% of the total value of exits that I have recorded. In some cases I've had insiders e-mail me with details where my estimate is off; in these cases I do correct my figure but keep the original H/M/L indication.
  - jessedhillon 14y ago
    Wow, that's amazing that insiders are sharing knowledge with you like that. Ever since I've found seed-db I've been sharing the surprising (to me) fact with people that YC has ~90% of the recorded exists in the accelerator ecosystem. That figure, of course, comes with an asterisk :)
    - jedc 14y ago
      Frankly, YC startups get the lion share of press attention. Between that and Hacker News, it's always easier to get information on YC startup exits than those from other programs. And generally insiders only get in touch with me around my worst valuation errors. :)
      - jaredsohn 14y ago
        >And generally insiders only get in touch with me around my worst valuation errors. :) It seems like you know how to get more people to contribute data. :)

Interesting! Danielle, would be interested in figuring out how I could help you automate this through Seed-DB (http://www.seed-db.com http://www.seed-db.com)

by jedc 14y ago

Interesting! Danielle, would be interested in figuring out how I could help you automate this through Seed-DB (http://www.seed-db.com http://www.seed-db.com)

jessedhillon 14y ago

I've been browsing this for the past week or so and was wondering -- how do you generate your valuation estimates? Seems like the sum of exits for something like YC could be off by as much as $250M if you consider that the low quality estimates could vary by 100%+ from their true value. http://www.seed-db.com/accelerators/view?acceleratorid=1011 http://www.seed-db.com/accelerators/view?acceleratorid=1011

jedc 14y ago
There are no valuation estimates; just estimates on sale prices when companies have exited. Luckily the biggest exits are the ones that have press interest and thus have a price attached. My methodology depends on research into previous funding rounds and a bit of guesswork, influenced by how the exit is framed. (Is it an acquihire? Or a traditional exit?) The reason I put the H/M/L indications is to be up-front and honest about it. You're correct in that they could be off, but $250million is <25% of the total value of exits that I have recorded. In some cases I've had insiders e-mail me with details where my estimate is off; in these cases I do correct my figure but keep the original H/M/L indication.
- jessedhillon 14y ago
  Wow, that's amazing that insiders are sharing knowledge with you like that. Ever since I've found seed-db I've been sharing the surprising (to me) fact with people that YC has ~90% of the recorded exists in the accelerator ecosystem. That figure, of course, comes with an asterisk :)
  - jedc 14y ago
    Frankly, YC startups get the lion share of press attention. Between that and Hacker News, it's always easier to get information on YC startup exits than those from other programs. And generally insiders only get in touch with me around my worst valuation errors. :)
    - jaredsohn 14y ago
      >And generally insiders only get in touch with me around my worst valuation errors. :) It seems like you know how to get more people to contribute data. :)