5 ms·

It's a scary thought that if all the computers in the world were destroyed in an instant, how long would it take for us to build a Core i7 processor. Decades?

by ultimoo 14y ago

dntrkv 14y ago
I was just talking to another developer about this, except we took it one step fruther: If all man made objects disappeared in an instant, how long would it take us to build a modern computer? The best we could come up with was: a really long time. Anyone have any input or recommended reads that pertain to this?
- elwin 14y ago
  From observing reenactments of early American life, I think an 18th century agricultural technology is self-sustaining and directly bootstrappable, except for the problem of mining and working iron. So my guess is not much longer than 300 years.
  - PeterisP 14y ago
    There exists a viewpoint that in case of a cataclysm (which would involve man-made objects disappearing) we would never, ever progress past 18th century tech again. The argument is that getting from animal-powered devices to solar/nuclear/whatever powered devices while at the same time switching from 90%-agricultural workforce to anything more progressive can happen only if there is a cheap source of energy available - and we already have mined and spent all of easily available fossil fuels. Even if all kinds of fancy devices are available and constructed by rich enthusiasts, the lack of cheap steam power ensures lack of cheap steel/etc, and all the technologies don't get the mass adoption required for their improvements, there are almost no advantages for industrialization, so the world gets stuck in feudal-agriculture systems as the local optimum.
    - jodrellblank 14y ago
      I wonder how far you'd get with, say, bamboo and bamboo-charcoal as an abundant and renewable fuel? http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/13/in-africas-vanishing-forests-the-benefits-of-bamboo/ http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/13/in-africas-v... It wouldn't have quite the pop of surface-minable coal and oil, but if you were pushing for high technology it would boil water, drive steam engines - but maybe it wouldn't happen in England. Where you'd get the metal from is another question.
- bartonfink 14y ago
  I think, in the best case (the right people are all together, and the right raw materials are readily available), you could probably get a modern computer built in 10 years, and a relatively basic microprocessor built in a few years less. If we don't have to reinvent a global communications system to get experts talking to each other, build mines and refineries to produce chip-grade silicon or rebuild airplanes to get materials from around the world, this task is a lot simpler. The biggest problem isn't that modern computers depend on some piece of technology or process that is lost to us. It's that all the people who understand every step in that chain, from survivalist blacksmiths who can smelt ore to make tools to industrial chemists who can fashion substances that nature doesn't readily provide to electrical engineers and developers who will actually program the damn computer in year 9, are currently widely dispersed. Put them together and give them what they need and I think they could get the job done more quickly than you think. Of course, it's more likely that everything and everyone you need will be scattered around the world when this instant occurs, and if that's the case, I'd honestly bet it would take hundreds of years to independently reinvent a modern computer because you'd need to reinvent most of modern society to gather the people and the materials to do that.

It's a scary thought that if all the computers in the world were destroyed in an instant, how long would it take for us to build a Core i7 processor. Decades?

by ultimoo 14y ago

It's a scary thought that if all the computers in the world were destroyed in an instant, how long would it take for us to build a Core i7 processor. Decades?

dntrkv 14y ago

I was just talking to another developer about this, except we took it one step fruther: If all man made objects disappeared in an instant, how long would it take us to build a modern computer? The best we could come up with was: a really long time. Anyone have any input or recommended reads that pertain to this?

elwin 14y ago
From observing reenactments of early American life, I think an 18th century agricultural technology is self-sustaining and directly bootstrappable, except for the problem of mining and working iron. So my guess is not much longer than 300 years.
- PeterisP 14y ago
  There exists a viewpoint that in case of a cataclysm (which would involve man-made objects disappearing) we would never, ever progress past 18th century tech again. The argument is that getting from animal-powered devices to solar/nuclear/whatever powered devices while at the same time switching from 90%-agricultural workforce to anything more progressive can happen only if there is a cheap source of energy available - and we already have mined and spent all of easily available fossil fuels. Even if all kinds of fancy devices are available and constructed by rich enthusiasts, the lack of cheap steam power ensures lack of cheap steel/etc, and all the technologies don't get the mass adoption required for their improvements, there are almost no advantages for industrialization, so the world gets stuck in feudal-agriculture systems as the local optimum.
  - jodrellblank 14y ago
    I wonder how far you'd get with, say, bamboo and bamboo-charcoal as an abundant and renewable fuel? http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/13/in-africas-vanishing-forests-the-benefits-of-bamboo/ http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/13/in-africas-v... It wouldn't have quite the pop of surface-minable coal and oil, but if you were pushing for high technology it would boil water, drive steam engines - but maybe it wouldn't happen in England. Where you'd get the metal from is another question.
bartonfink 14y ago
I think, in the best case (the right people are all together, and the right raw materials are readily available), you could probably get a modern computer built in 10 years, and a relatively basic microprocessor built in a few years less. If we don't have to reinvent a global communications system to get experts talking to each other, build mines and refineries to produce chip-grade silicon or rebuild airplanes to get materials from around the world, this task is a lot simpler. The biggest problem isn't that modern computers depend on some piece of technology or process that is lost to us. It's that all the people who understand every step in that chain, from survivalist blacksmiths who can smelt ore to make tools to industrial chemists who can fashion substances that nature doesn't readily provide to electrical engineers and developers who will actually program the damn computer in year 9, are currently widely dispersed. Put them together and give them what they need and I think they could get the job done more quickly than you think. Of course, it's more likely that everything and everyone you need will be scattered around the world when this instant occurs, and if that's the case, I'd honestly bet it would take hundreds of years to independently reinvent a modern computer because you'd need to reinvent most of modern society to gather the people and the materials to do that.