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What exactly is your point? If we see market prices as reasonably efficient, the current Euro price shows that the typical "Stupid Eurocrats idiotic mismanageme

by Atropos 14y ago

What exactly is your point? If we see market prices as reasonably efficient, the current Euro price shows that the typical "Stupid Eurocrats idiotic mismanagement of the flawed Euro project will lead to European collapse in 2 weeks" simply doesn't have a base in reality. Individual (small) countries may fail, the system will be fine, and misinformed doomsayers will - as always - end up making fools of themselves.

jpdoctor 14y ago
> What exactly is your point? The euro is up 16% because there are more dollars in circulation chasing the same number of euros. Same for the pound. A deflationary environment in Europe (what are prices doing in Greece? What is the Spanish unemployment rate?) is exactly what you would expect, and the Euro up 16% against the USD and 23.3% against the UK pound is evidence of that. Or to put it another way: You quote evidence that supports the point you are trying to refute. (Perhaps you are being confused by the term "up" in currency exchanges? It makes exports more expensive, which makes the deflation worse since fewer employees will be needed.)
- Atropos 14y ago
  You do realize that I quoted numbers for the last 10 years? Since the Eurocrisis started, the Euro has losses of around 6-10% against the other major currencies, so your deflationary argument isn't really sound. All I wanted to say is that in the long run, foreign exchange rates express some form of judgment about the soundness of a currency. The markets still consider the Euro a very sound and safe currency - at least more so than the USD and the UK pound. A weaker exchange rate might be preferable, but that is not a way Europe wants to go. Instead of printing money, the idea is to restructure the economy. In the short run this will of course be super painful and allow commentators to shout "Look, austerity has failed". Let's talk again in 2025, bond yields for Greece,Italy,Spain are already down...
  - Turing_Machine 14y ago
    "You do realize that I quoted numbers for the last 10 years?" No, you didn't. You compared two isolated data points. If you look at the actual graph of the last ten years, the Euro has been both considerably higher and considerably lower against the dollar over that period.

by Atropos 14y ago

jpdoctor 14y ago

> What exactly is your point? The euro is up 16% because there are more dollars in circulation chasing the same number of euros. Same for the pound. A deflationary environment in Europe (what are prices doing in Greece? What is the Spanish unemployment rate?) is exactly what you would expect, and the Euro up 16% against the USD and 23.3% against the UK pound is evidence of that. Or to put it another way: You quote evidence that supports the point you are trying to refute. (Perhaps you are being confused by the term "up" in currency exchanges? It makes exports more expensive, which makes the deflation worse since fewer employees will be needed.)

Atropos 14y ago
You do realize that I quoted numbers for the last 10 years? Since the Eurocrisis started, the Euro has losses of around 6-10% against the other major currencies, so your deflationary argument isn't really sound. All I wanted to say is that in the long run, foreign exchange rates express some form of judgment about the soundness of a currency. The markets still consider the Euro a very sound and safe currency - at least more so than the USD and the UK pound. A weaker exchange rate might be preferable, but that is not a way Europe wants to go. Instead of printing money, the idea is to restructure the economy. In the short run this will of course be super painful and allow commentators to shout "Look, austerity has failed". Let's talk again in 2025, bond yields for Greece,Italy,Spain are already down...
- Turing_Machine 14y ago
  "You do realize that I quoted numbers for the last 10 years?" No, you didn't. You compared two isolated data points. If you look at the actual graph of the last ten years, the Euro has been both considerably higher and considerably lower against the dollar over that period.