I guarantee you that pg isn't claiming he knows which the "Top 46" of 84 are. All he can do is pick the best as he see's them, and hope for the best. I think

I guarantee you that pg isn't claiming he knows which the "Top 46" of 84 are. All he can do is pick the best as he see's them, and hope for the best. I think he's said in many article, that, in fact, the vast majority of the returns each session will come from only one or two startups, and he certainly isn't able to identify those two in advance.