4 ms·

If it wasn't for the Green Revolution in the 70's, then global famine would have been a very real possibility. Shows to tell you that one can't use past trends

by pinwale 14y ago

If it wasn't for the Green Revolution in the 70's, then global famine would have been a very real possibility. Shows to tell you that one can't use past trends to predict the future. more info: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Revolution http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Revolution

personlurking 14y ago
"The common enemy of humanity is man. In searching for a new enemy to unite us, we came up with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming, water shortages, famine and the like would fit the bill. All these dangers are caused by human intervention, and it is only through changed attitudes and behavior that they can be overcome. The real enemy then, is humanity itself." - Club of Rome, premier environmental think-tank, consultants to the United Nations, (a statement from the 1970s, if I'm not mistaken) In a sense, the past can be used to predict the future, via movements and policies (usually backed by the same entities, IMO). If someone's fist, for example, is coming at you, the best thing is not to let it hit you (and therefore stop the motion) but to use its momentum to guide it where you want it to go. Meaning movements and policies may often start out small but when they grow they often become guided. It's a great thing to take care of the planet we live on but one must be weary of the initiatives piggybacking on such an idea. Incremental change is pretty much a perfect weapon. http://www.green-agenda.com/ http://www.green-agenda.com/
- skore 14y ago
  > In a sense, the past can be used to predict the future, via movements and policies Asimov coined it Psychohistory[0]. Reminds me that I never finished the Foundation series. (In my defense, it is quite a long series.) [0] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_(fictional) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_(fictional)
prodigal_erik 14y ago
The Green Revolution consisted of getting the best known farming techniques into wide use, and massive adoption of irrigation and artificial fertilizer. We don't have huge reserves of fresh water or petroleum or untested ag science that will let us further increase any of those reliably. I don't see us avoiding famine other than a rapid buildup in nuclear energy which we haven't started.
- paul_f 14y ago
  One problem with predicting the future is that some assume no new technology can or will be created. This comment is a case-in-point.
- philwelch 14y ago
  Massive adoption and wide use of contraceptives would do the trick.
- kaybe 14y ago
  If we manage to get a better supply of energy we can desalinate sea water. Fusion is always 30 years in the future, but I think solar+wind+storage(hydrogen?) could do it. This is being worked on. Also, a great part of the current production is wasted, which could give us some more time. There is also the option of building farm skyscrapers [1]; I've seen an acticle about a test run recently. However, these also need a lot of energy. I think it can be done. The greatest problem I see is the upcoming climate change which will force us to change a lot of the traditional agricultural patterns and which could be very unforgiving. The problem is not the increase of temperature or the rise in sea level (except for Asia), but the change in precipitation patterns. What we need is more information and the ability to share and get the information from/to everyone involved, especially the small farmers in remote communities. [1] like so: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vertical_farming https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vertical_farming

by pinwale 14y ago

personlurking 14y ago

"The common enemy of humanity is man. In searching for a new enemy to unite us, we came up with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming, water shortages, famine and the like would fit the bill. All these dangers are caused by human intervention, and it is only through changed attitudes and behavior that they can be overcome. The real enemy then, is humanity itself." - Club of Rome, premier environmental think-tank, consultants to the United Nations, (a statement from the 1970s, if I'm not mistaken) In a sense, the past can be used to predict the future, via movements and policies (usually backed by the same entities, IMO). If someone's fist, for example, is coming at you, the best thing is not to let it hit you (and therefore stop the motion) but to use its momentum to guide it where you want it to go. Meaning movements and policies may often start out small but when they grow they often become guided. It's a great thing to take care of the planet we live on but one must be weary of the initiatives piggybacking on such an idea. Incremental change is pretty much a perfect weapon. http://www.green-agenda.com/ http://www.green-agenda.com/

skore 14y ago
> In a sense, the past can be used to predict the future, via movements and policies Asimov coined it Psychohistory[0]. Reminds me that I never finished the Foundation series. (In my defense, it is quite a long series.) [0] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_(fictional) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_(fictional)

prodigal_erik 14y ago

The Green Revolution consisted of getting the best known farming techniques into wide use, and massive adoption of irrigation and artificial fertilizer. We don't have huge reserves of fresh water or petroleum or untested ag science that will let us further increase any of those reliably. I don't see us avoiding famine other than a rapid buildup in nuclear energy which we haven't started.

paul_f 14y ago
One problem with predicting the future is that some assume no new technology can or will be created. This comment is a case-in-point.
philwelch 14y ago
Massive adoption and wide use of contraceptives would do the trick.
kaybe 14y ago
If we manage to get a better supply of energy we can desalinate sea water. Fusion is always 30 years in the future, but I think solar+wind+storage(hydrogen?) could do it. This is being worked on. Also, a great part of the current production is wasted, which could give us some more time. There is also the option of building farm skyscrapers [1]; I've seen an acticle about a test run recently. However, these also need a lot of energy. I think it can be done. The greatest problem I see is the upcoming climate change which will force us to change a lot of the traditional agricultural patterns and which could be very unforgiving. The problem is not the increase of temperature or the rise in sea level (except for Asia), but the change in precipitation patterns. What we need is more information and the ability to share and get the information from/to everyone involved, especially the small farmers in remote communities. [1] like so: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vertical_farming https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vertical_farming