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"Well-over" $50 million could be $60 million You say that as if $60 million would be any less absurd? Is it some sort of tax evasion scheme? Are you intention

by moe 14y ago

"Well-over" $50 million could be $60 million You say that as if $60 million would be any less absurd? Is it some sort of tax evasion scheme? Are you intentionally throwing out absurdities? No. Companies tend to do really weird[1] things to avoid taxes. I'm honestly trying to wrap my head around these kind of deals (color was the textbook example, but it's not like there's a shortage on them). [1] http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/new-twist-in-stricken-rig-saga-shell-was-moving-it-to-avoid-tax-8439128.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/new-twist-i...

potatolicious 14y ago
> "You say that as if $60 million would be any less absurd?" I find neither price absurd. It is clear that Dropbox has not bought Mailbox for the purposes of selling copies of Mailbox - making $100mm back that way is, of course, insanity. Dropbox right now is having its core feature (online storage) attacked by competitors with far-reaching and deeply integrated stacks. See: iCloud, Google, etc, where the cloud storage is deeply integrated specific content on your device. Photos, documents, email, etc. It would seem like they're trying to develop this stack for themselves and take on Google and Apple directly. Whether or not this is the right strategy I cannot say, but a cloud email service with a best-of-breed UI will certainly help them cement the market share they need. And having seen Mailbox, it's very competitive with what is IMO the next-best mobile email client, GMail, and takes iOS's Mail.app out back and shoots it. I expect the next moves to be either developing or acquiring media sharing (photos, videos, etc) apps. This is the sort of ecosystem they need to create to hope to sell Dropbox as the "your data, everywhere, without lock-in" value proposition. Mailbox isn't just a half-decent email UI, it is the best email UI we've seen in ages, in a field where there is no shortage of competition. Even vaunted Apple's email app pales in comparison.
- citizens 14y ago
  > And having seen Mailbox, it's very competitive with what is IMO the next-best mobile email client, GMail But Mailbox only works with GMail email accounts. I wonder how many users Mailbox would have if Google shut them off.
  - pbiggar 14y ago
    I don't think Google can realistically do that, both from a tech and a PR standpoint.
    - makomk 14y ago
      I didn't think that Google could realistically drop CalDAV either until they did.
      - pbiggar 14y ago
        Not a reasonable comparison, IMO.
    - lzimm 14y ago
      or, of course, there also exists the rebuttal that, uhh, there's no reason mailbox can't work with things that aren't gmail.....
      - coldtea 14y ago
        Except if, uhhh, they have made too many assumption on Gmail features being available, so that from the backend to the UI layer, it needs a good, over-through, rewrite to work with anything more standard.
      - justincormack 14y ago
        Gmail has spent a lot of time making it work well with web mail clients, be fast etc. Other people have not done this much in general, they would probably have to buy someone.
  - tmzt 14y ago
    And the forthcoming Dropbox email API? (jk)
    - legutierr 14y ago
      That actually makes a lot of sense.
- moe 14y ago
  Mailbox isn't just a half-decent email UI, it is the best email UI we've seen in ages I acknowledge that. And I know they didn't just buy the app, but also the brand, the userbase, the marketing headstart, the team, the momentum. But still. It boils down to a mobile app that could be cloned, bit-for-bit, for way under $5 million. Dropbox has a pretty strong brand of its own already. For instance: Almost everyone I know uses Dropbox. In contrast I have never heard of mailbox.app before. And I'm a nerd, I read Hacker News, I tend to know most of the fancy things before everyone else. Ok, let's ignore that. Let's assume mailbox.app utterly dominates the (iphone?) market. What would it help them if Dropbox went against them with their clone? Users are not exactly loyal when there's no network effect. I can't imagine mailbox.app would fare all that well against a (near identical) dropboxmail.app that comes bundled with whatever goodies Dropbox has planned to take it up with Google. Sorry, I understand your angle (and your proposed strategy sounds plausible to me), but I just can't get over that number. Framing it as a long-term strategy for Dropbox makes it only more batshit insane to me, because even in my wildest imagination I can't see what mailbox.app brings to the table that Dropbox couldn't replicate for a fraction of the money in a very short timespan. And "fraction of money" means a difference of tens of millions of dollars here. I expect the next moves to be either developing or acquiring media sharing (photos, videos, etc) apps By that logic their next move will be to pull another Color.app?
  - colinsidoti 14y ago
    > Let's assume mailbox.app utterly dominates the (iphone?) market. There are two reasons I would potentially want Dropbox on my phone. 1: For photos. 2: I need to email someone a file on the run. If the app that I'm using for email plays nicely with Dropbox, this is suddenly much easier. At least that's the main benefit I've thought of, and it strikes me as pretty powerful. As far as a big player cloning an app to take out a dominating startup, can't you argue that's what Microsoft, Apple, Google are trying against Dropbox now? > I expect the next moves to be either developing or acquiring media sharing (photos, videos, etc) apps It's not too big of a secret that they're doing this...check out their New Grad job description.
  - derefr 14y ago
    > But still. It boils down to a mobile app that could be cloned, bit-for-bit, for way under $5 million. Anyone can clone Mailbox v1.0. Then Mailbox come out with v2.0 and it's better than anything on the market, again, until that gets cloned too. Then out comes v3.0. (A valid comparison: the iPhone itself.) Dropbox want to buy the Mailbox team's UX talent so that they're the ones running ahead of the curve, instead of constantly playing catch-up. They can then put it to work on all their other products, too.
baddox 14y ago
> No. Companies tend to do really weird[1] things to avoid taxes. Sure, but a large tech company buying a small tech company is hardly a "really weird thing."
coldtea 14y ago
>You say that as if $60 million would be any less absurd? Well, if you are used to McDonalds salaries it might be a lot of cash. But in the world of startup acquisitions it's neither here, nor there. It depends on the strategic vision for the app. For perspective, an iPhone $1 dollar game can make $20 million dollar per year if it's on the top ten. And even in the top 50 it can still make a sweet million per year (or more). For a popular top-five paid app, the sky's the limit. Especially if it can also migrate to the Mac, Android, and even Windows (which Dropbox does cover).

by moe 14y ago

potatolicious 14y ago

> "You say that as if $60 million would be any less absurd?" I find neither price absurd. It is clear that Dropbox has not bought Mailbox for the purposes of selling copies of Mailbox - making $100mm back that way is, of course, insanity. Dropbox right now is having its core feature (online storage) attacked by competitors with far-reaching and deeply integrated stacks. See: iCloud, Google, etc, where the cloud storage is deeply integrated specific content on your device. Photos, documents, email, etc. It would seem like they're trying to develop this stack for themselves and take on Google and Apple directly. Whether or not this is the right strategy I cannot say, but a cloud email service with a best-of-breed UI will certainly help them cement the market share they need. And having seen Mailbox, it's very competitive with what is IMO the next-best mobile email client, GMail, and takes iOS's Mail.app out back and shoots it. I expect the next moves to be either developing or acquiring media sharing (photos, videos, etc) apps. This is the sort of ecosystem they need to create to hope to sell Dropbox as the "your data, everywhere, without lock-in" value proposition. Mailbox isn't just a half-decent email UI, it is the best email UI we've seen in ages, in a field where there is no shortage of competition. Even vaunted Apple's email app pales in comparison.

citizens 14y ago
> And having seen Mailbox, it's very competitive with what is IMO the next-best mobile email client, GMail But Mailbox only works with GMail email accounts. I wonder how many users Mailbox would have if Google shut them off.
- pbiggar 14y ago
  I don't think Google can realistically do that, both from a tech and a PR standpoint.
  - makomk 14y ago
    I didn't think that Google could realistically drop CalDAV either until they did.
    - pbiggar 14y ago
      Not a reasonable comparison, IMO.
  - lzimm 14y ago
    or, of course, there also exists the rebuttal that, uhh, there's no reason mailbox can't work with things that aren't gmail.....
    - coldtea 14y ago
      Except if, uhhh, they have made too many assumption on Gmail features being available, so that from the backend to the UI layer, it needs a good, over-through, rewrite to work with anything more standard.
    - justincormack 14y ago
      Gmail has spent a lot of time making it work well with web mail clients, be fast etc. Other people have not done this much in general, they would probably have to buy someone.
- tmzt 14y ago
  And the forthcoming Dropbox email API? (jk)
  - legutierr 14y ago
    That actually makes a lot of sense.
moe 14y ago
Mailbox isn't just a half-decent email UI, it is the best email UI we've seen in ages I acknowledge that. And I know they didn't just buy the app, but also the brand, the userbase, the marketing headstart, the team, the momentum. But still. It boils down to a mobile app that could be cloned, bit-for-bit, for way under $5 million. Dropbox has a pretty strong brand of its own already. For instance: Almost everyone I know uses Dropbox. In contrast I have never heard of mailbox.app before. And I'm a nerd, I read Hacker News, I tend to know most of the fancy things before everyone else. Ok, let's ignore that. Let's assume mailbox.app utterly dominates the (iphone?) market. What would it help them if Dropbox went against them with their clone? Users are not exactly loyal when there's no network effect. I can't imagine mailbox.app would fare all that well against a (near identical) dropboxmail.app that comes bundled with whatever goodies Dropbox has planned to take it up with Google. Sorry, I understand your angle (and your proposed strategy sounds plausible to me), but I just can't get over that number. Framing it as a long-term strategy for Dropbox makes it only more batshit insane to me, because even in my wildest imagination I can't see what mailbox.app brings to the table that Dropbox couldn't replicate for a fraction of the money in a very short timespan. And "fraction of money" means a difference of tens of millions of dollars here. I expect the next moves to be either developing or acquiring media sharing (photos, videos, etc) apps By that logic their next move will be to pull another Color.app?
- colinsidoti 14y ago
  > Let's assume mailbox.app utterly dominates the (iphone?) market. There are two reasons I would potentially want Dropbox on my phone. 1: For photos. 2: I need to email someone a file on the run. If the app that I'm using for email plays nicely with Dropbox, this is suddenly much easier. At least that's the main benefit I've thought of, and it strikes me as pretty powerful. As far as a big player cloning an app to take out a dominating startup, can't you argue that's what Microsoft, Apple, Google are trying against Dropbox now? > I expect the next moves to be either developing or acquiring media sharing (photos, videos, etc) apps It's not too big of a secret that they're doing this...check out their New Grad job description.
- derefr 14y ago
  > But still. It boils down to a mobile app that could be cloned, bit-for-bit, for way under $5 million. Anyone can clone Mailbox v1.0. Then Mailbox come out with v2.0 and it's better than anything on the market, again, until that gets cloned too. Then out comes v3.0. (A valid comparison: the iPhone itself.) Dropbox want to buy the Mailbox team's UX talent so that they're the ones running ahead of the curve, instead of constantly playing catch-up. They can then put it to work on all their other products, too.

baddox 14y ago

> No. Companies tend to do really weird[1] things to avoid taxes. Sure, but a large tech company buying a small tech company is hardly a "really weird thing."

coldtea 14y ago

>You say that as if $60 million would be any less absurd? Well, if you are used to McDonalds salaries it might be a lot of cash. But in the world of startup acquisitions it's neither here, nor there. It depends on the strategic vision for the app. For perspective, an iPhone $1 dollar game can make $20 million dollar per year if it's on the top ten. And even in the top 50 it can still make a sweet million per year (or more). For a popular top-five paid app, the sky's the limit. Especially if it can also migrate to the Mac, Android, and even Windows (which Dropbox does cover).