4 ms·
How are you determining the accuracy of your market predictions?
by foobarqux 14y ago
How are you determining the accuracy of your market predictions?
- adam 14y agoHere's a blog post we wrote a few years ago about it: http://blog.inklingmarkets.com/2008/05/judging-prediction-markets-accuracy.html http://blog.inklingmarkets.com/2008/05/judging-prediction-ma...
- foobarqux 14y agoYou don't specify when you are sampling the market. It often wouldn't be surprising, or useful, that a market correctly predicts an event the day before it occurs.