It all depends on how people will react - if they panic he'll maybe double his investments, if not he'll lose it. If you had 50% probability to these two outco

It all depends on how people will react - if they panic he'll maybe double his investments, if not he'll lose it. If you had 50% probability to these two outcomes would you take the gamble? I guess you are sure that there is some way to make people panic if you have 1 daily MtGox volume in BTC - but it is only because you don't have it and you imagine that if only you had it you'll be able to fool all the bitcoin market players.