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Given the reportedly rapid decline in his health, not entirely surprising. Don't expect major changes in the country's governance. Change comes from the peopl

by dr_ 14y ago

Given the reportedly rapid decline in his health, not entirely surprising. Don't expect major changes in the country's governance. Change comes from the people, with a revolution or uprising, not the death of a leader because of an illness or for natural reasons.

jessedhillon 14y ago
Totally untrue. For a simple existence disproof: compare Mao's policies with those of his successors. One would be very hard pressed to claim that revolution or uprising caused the shift from hard enactment of anti-Western Marxism (the Cultural Revolution being the quintessential example of this) to what they have now (essentially, command capitalism.)
- jacquesm 14y ago
  That's not entirely true either. The threat of a revolution can be just as effective as an actual revolution if the leaders are sensitive to it. Having a billion people to feed that might get very upset with you some day is a good reason to change, I think a real revolution in China would have been inevitable if they had not changed course. It came close enough as it was.
nickik 14y ago
This is actually very, very wrong. Goverment structure often changes a hole lot if it becomes known that a leader has a terminal illness. The dictator/king or whatever is the one distributing the goods between his cronys that make up his powerstructure, as soon as a illness becomes known everybody knows that things are about to change and the infighting starts. Revolution are not always bottom up, I would even say they are usually not bottom up. Most of the time the goverment changes because of political infighting. This holdes true for all kinds of organiational structures. Cases where this has happend are well documented, for example in this book: - The Logic of Political Survival (http://www.amazon.com/Logic-Political-Survival-Bruce-Mesquita/dp/0262524406 http://www.amazon.com/Logic-Political-Survival-Bruce-Mesquit...) The books is quite heavy so I would suggest this podcast on the same subject with the author: - The Political Economy of Power http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2006/08/the_political_e.html http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2006/08/the_political_e.htm...

by dr_ 14y ago

jessedhillon 14y ago

Totally untrue. For a simple existence disproof: compare Mao's policies with those of his successors. One would be very hard pressed to claim that revolution or uprising caused the shift from hard enactment of anti-Western Marxism (the Cultural Revolution being the quintessential example of this) to what they have now (essentially, command capitalism.)

jacquesm 14y ago
That's not entirely true either. The threat of a revolution can be just as effective as an actual revolution if the leaders are sensitive to it. Having a billion people to feed that might get very upset with you some day is a good reason to change, I think a real revolution in China would have been inevitable if they had not changed course. It came close enough as it was.

nickik 14y ago

This is actually very, very wrong. Goverment structure often changes a hole lot if it becomes known that a leader has a terminal illness. The dictator/king or whatever is the one distributing the goods between his cronys that make up his powerstructure, as soon as a illness becomes known everybody knows that things are about to change and the infighting starts. Revolution are not always bottom up, I would even say they are usually not bottom up. Most of the time the goverment changes because of political infighting. This holdes true for all kinds of organiational structures. Cases where this has happend are well documented, for example in this book: - The Logic of Political Survival (http://www.amazon.com/Logic-Political-Survival-Bruce-Mesquita/dp/0262524406 http://www.amazon.com/Logic-Political-Survival-Bruce-Mesquit...) The books is quite heavy so I would suggest this podcast on the same subject with the author: - The Political Economy of Power http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2006/08/the_political_e.html http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2006/08/the_political_e.htm...