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Weak article. They assert there is a problem with the data, point out at least one flaw, conclude that the entire data set is wrong and then attempt to draw con
by iyulaev 14y ago
Weak article. They assert there is a problem with the data, point out at least one flaw, conclude that the entire data set is wrong and then attempt to draw conclusions from it. The author seems to be trying to use negative evidence, i.e. induction, to prove something, like in the following example:
Argument: The average age of a population is 10.
Counter-argument: At least on one of the numbers is greater than it should be.
Conclusion: The average age of a population is 8.
- rm999 14y agoThe meat of the article is: >the fact that there are 234,000 unrecorded deaths in the Japanese population means the often-touted life-expectancy figure of 82 years for Japan now has to be considered suspect Not sure how you can argue against that reasoning unless you can show Japan's life expectancy calculations have nothing to do with official estimates of how many people are currently older than 100 (which is possible). Your example doesn't follow the spirit of their argument at all. They aren't proposing their own average, and their evidence involves far more than one data point.
- iyulaev 14y agoThe headline of the article is proposing an average, though. By saying "the myth of x" they insist that x is false. In this case, this is equivalent to asserting that Japanese life expectancy is not above the average in Western nations. Seems like simply a case of a misleading or exaggerated headline.
- crazcarl 14y agoI think your conclusion should be re-stated as Conclusion: The average age of a population is less than 10. Which would be true if the counter-argument was found to be correct, would it not?
- aik 14y agoThis is about Japan in general as well. Specifically it's in Okinawa where people supposedly do live an unusually long time, with the rest of the country more unspectacular. I would like to see whether this is true in Okinawa as well.