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I personally feel that it is better to err on the side of caution in regards to global warming. I say "feel" because I'm just not smart enough to navigate fact

I personally feel that it is better to err on the side of caution in regards to global warming. I say "feel" because I'm just not smart enough to navigate fact from fiction on this issue anymore. There's going to be extremes on both sides, but I don't see what we have to gain by not taking better care of our planet. Even if global warming is only partially manmade, shouldn't we do what we can to minimize the effect? And plain old pollution is a visible problem regardless of warming effects; it's now in our food and water supply. That is how I see this issue. Hope that is a reasonable approach considering all the FUD out there. I don't see how society is harmed by erring on the side of caution on this one.

eugenejen 18y ago
I personally feel it will be futile to be cautious. Instead, we should always prepare for adapting to changes.
robotrout 18y ago
"I don't see how society is harmed by erring on the side of caution" Let me try to help you see then. Even though it's extremely important that you prevent tooth decay, and even if you have a huge chunk of "Jolly Rancher" stuck between your teeth, it would be a non-optimal use of resources to use your last match as you were shivering on the side of a mountain with a broken leg, to dislodge the offending piece of candy. I'm sure you'll agree with this, in this extreme case. But what you are missing, is that humans have a limited supply of productivity that we use to feed and house the populations of our respective countries, and hopefully, to build infrastructure for the next generation to feed and house their populations. When you siphon off that productivity to dislodge a piece of candy, you better be damn sure the candy is going to harm you. In the case of the warmists, since you are literally stealing food and medicine from people's mouths with your demands of what is necessary, you better be damn certain you're right.
- cgranade 18y ago
  Given how much we spend on entertainment and other luxuries, is it really fair to say call spending money on what is likely essential to the preservation of our species "literally stealing food and medicine from people's mouths?" Hell, given what we spend on killing each other over oil and religion, how is it that spending money on understanding and dealing with climate change is stealing? In the United States alone, we have spent over $600 billion on the Iraq war-- even a few of those billions could make the difference between action and inaction on climate change.
  - anamax 18y ago
    > even a few of those billions could make the difference between action and inaction on climate change. Really? If we spent $20B on global warming you'd go away happy? > is it really fair to say call spending money on what is likely essential to the preservation of our species Interestingly enough, if you read the cost estimates from the advocates, it's reasonably cheap to deal with the problem after it occurs, at least compared to the total global GDP at that time. The only way you get to "spend now" vs "spend later" on an economic basis is by using a negative rate of return.
    - dangoldin 18y ago
      With deflation it just might happen.
    - cgranade 18y ago
      Of course it'd take more than $20 billion over the span of our lifetimes. I meant that within the context of the Iraq War spending, diverting even a few of those 600 billions of dollars could have made a very positive impact and would have meant that Bush was not completely inactive on the issue. I realize I phrased that poorly, and I'm sorry for that, but my point still stands: compared to what we spend on killing each other, the money that is being asked to save our whole way of life is chump change. Moreover, the issue of climate change runs much deeper than economics alone. Talking about rates of return and deferred action neglect the potential for catastrophe if we simply continue to do nothing.
      - anamax 18y ago
        > would have meant that Bush was not completely inactive on the issue. Actually, he wasn't. He didn't do what you want, but that's a very different than nothing. Are you going with ignorance or "I was trying to emphasize my point"? > I realize I phrased that poorly, and I'm sorry for that, but my point still stands: compared to what we spend on killing each other, the money that is being asked to save our whole way of life is chump change The mainstream folks who want money for climate change disagree. They want hundreds of billions of dollars. If they're wrong, that's a huge deal. Let's see some details supporting your "chump change" estimate. Are they wrong? > Moreover, the issue of climate change runs much deeper than economics alone. Talking about rates of return and deferred action neglect the potential for catastrophe if we simply continue to do nothing. Catastrophe is short-hand for "very expensive", so you're merely making a "numbers-free" economic argument. The AGW folks have predicted the costs of "catastrophe" and "measures to avoid". (The latter are surely low because they don't significantly affect the predicted climate change.) Once again, if they're wrong, that's a big deal. Let's see the details.
- Tichy 18y ago
  " In the case of the warmists, since you are literally stealing food and medicine from people's mouths with your demands of what is necessary, you better be damn certain you're right." The same goes for you - if the warmists are right, then the non-warmists are stealing food from people's mouths (as farmland will be burned or flooded or whatever).
axod 18y ago
There's a number. For example, trying to prevent developing countries from using coal/oil etc That's harming to those countries. Also it's an absolute ton of money to spend on something that hasn't been proven. I'm of the opinion that it's unlikely we are to blame, we should obviously as always try to use less energy, and we should spend money on more important causes.
jacoblyles 18y ago
Rational decision making always involves assessing the (probable) costs and benefits of potential actions. If the potential benefit is small and uncertain, and the cost is large and certain, it probably makes sense to wait and collect more information. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opportunity_cost http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opportunity_cost http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/bjorn_lomborg_sets_global_priorities.html http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/bjorn_lomborg_sets_global... http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/CCC%20Home%20Page.aspx http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/CCC%20Home%20Page.aspx
- thaumaturgy 18y ago
  A friend and I once carried several large pieces of trash out of a wilderness area. We were sore, and tired, and our packs were heavy, and we were eager to go home and shower and eat some junk food. I'm glad we didn't make a rational decision.
  - koningrobot 18y ago
    You are glad based on how it made you feel, not on what impact it made. Most probably it didn't have much impact and you might as well have dropped the trash. Not that that's what I would've done, but saying we should trust our emotions on this big and costly problem makes no sense. Of course, throwing rationality out of the window by definition doesn't make any sense. I'm not sure what your point is.
    - thaumaturgy 18y ago
      I was taking issue with the definition of a "rational" decision in terms of environment as merely a cost-benefit analysis. I'm, frankly, sick of cost-benefit analysis being applied to everything. It has become the hammer that's turning everything into a nail. It's led to a pretty ugly state of software in a lot of different arenas, because a CBA doesn't support spending much time running down memory leaks, or trying to reduce software footprint. The problem with using CBA in software -- and more to the point, in the environment -- is that it ignores the cumulative effect of lots of small decisions. Each individual action may not make "rational" sense in terms of CBA, but the consequences quickly add up. To go back to my specific example, you're right that our hauling out some of the trash probably had very little positive impact on our environment. However, it is the cumulative actions of us and others like us who ensure that our trails stay clean. For yet another example, if you climb Mount Rainier in Washington, you are expected to pack out all of your waste. I would guess the average trip time to the summit and back to be about three to four days, so that means that parties must carry their poop in their pack. From an individual cost-benefit point of view, that's ridiculous and not rational. It requires a lot of effort for -- on an individual basis -- little environmental benefit. However, it's the cumulative impact of thousands of summit parties every year that has a very real, and very detrimental, impact on the mountain's ecology. Basically, cost-benefit analysis is a stupid, shortsighted way to make decisions.
FictiveEvan 18y ago
I read of an interesting thought experiment once - a way to take the moral judgment out of the anthropogenic global warming debate. Imagine that there were never fossil fuels or elevated CO2 levels. Now imagine that scientists have (somehow) determined that the sun has suddenly increased its energy output in such a way that would exactly mimic on this imaginary planet, the proposed effect of elevated CO2 on our planet (this turns out to be about a 0.3% increase in output). Would this discovery warrant massively restructuring the world economy by central decree in an attempt to counteract the sun? The spending of billions (trillions?) of dollars? These are the decisions you are making when you err on the side of caution.
- thaumaturgy 18y ago
  That doesn't make sense to me. It completely sidesteps both the questions of responsibility, as well as questions about our desired environment. I am -- or was, before my "startup" days -- an avid hiker, backpacker, etc.; to me, your thought experiment translates this way: Imagine that I was out hiking, and that I see a bunch of trash on the trail. Now imagine that the trash doesn't belong to me. Should I pick it up? It doesn't make sense to me that, as a species with the ability to dramatically affect our environment, we should choose to not take care of it. It doesn't make sense to me that we would spoil our own living conditions. To get back to your thought experiment: if the causes behind global warming were out of our control, but if the global warming had the potential to create an environment which we didn't want to live in, and if we had the power to counteract the changes, then I think it makes sense to do so. As a practical matter, "massively restructuring the world economy" is also known as progress. We're certainly not going to burn coal in space.
  - eds 18y ago
    "As a practical matter, 'massively restructuring the world economy' is also known as progress." Except that the next three words were "by central decree."
  - FictiveEvan 18y ago
    I think your analogy is flawed, since it assumes that the trash was put there by another person (just like CO2 in the atmosphere was put there by other people). A better one would be if you came upon a barren, ugly landscape - would you be morally obligated to improve it? That said, I see your point about us humans managing our environment and making it more to our liking. We've been doing it for thousands of years. I just don't understand what basis we have for making the sort of radical changes proposed by "climate change" alarmists. How do we know the outcome will be to our liking?

eugenejen 18y ago

I personally feel it will be futile to be cautious. Instead, we should always prepare for adapting to changes.

robotrout 18y ago

"I don't see how society is harmed by erring on the side of caution" Let me try to help you see then. Even though it's extremely important that you prevent tooth decay, and even if you have a huge chunk of "Jolly Rancher" stuck between your teeth, it would be a non-optimal use of resources to use your last match as you were shivering on the side of a mountain with a broken leg, to dislodge the offending piece of candy. I'm sure you'll agree with this, in this extreme case. But what you are missing, is that humans have a limited supply of productivity that we use to feed and house the populations of our respective countries, and hopefully, to build infrastructure for the next generation to feed and house their populations. When you siphon off that productivity to dislodge a piece of candy, you better be damn sure the candy is going to harm you. In the case of the warmists, since you are literally stealing food and medicine from people's mouths with your demands of what is necessary, you better be damn certain you're right.

cgranade 18y ago
Given how much we spend on entertainment and other luxuries, is it really fair to say call spending money on what is likely essential to the preservation of our species "literally stealing food and medicine from people's mouths?" Hell, given what we spend on killing each other over oil and religion, how is it that spending money on understanding and dealing with climate change is stealing? In the United States alone, we have spent over $600 billion on the Iraq war-- even a few of those billions could make the difference between action and inaction on climate change.
- anamax 18y ago
  > even a few of those billions could make the difference between action and inaction on climate change. Really? If we spent $20B on global warming you'd go away happy? > is it really fair to say call spending money on what is likely essential to the preservation of our species Interestingly enough, if you read the cost estimates from the advocates, it's reasonably cheap to deal with the problem after it occurs, at least compared to the total global GDP at that time. The only way you get to "spend now" vs "spend later" on an economic basis is by using a negative rate of return.
  - dangoldin 18y ago
    With deflation it just might happen.
  - cgranade 18y ago
    Of course it'd take more than $20 billion over the span of our lifetimes. I meant that within the context of the Iraq War spending, diverting even a few of those 600 billions of dollars could have made a very positive impact and would have meant that Bush was not completely inactive on the issue. I realize I phrased that poorly, and I'm sorry for that, but my point still stands: compared to what we spend on killing each other, the money that is being asked to save our whole way of life is chump change. Moreover, the issue of climate change runs much deeper than economics alone. Talking about rates of return and deferred action neglect the potential for catastrophe if we simply continue to do nothing.
    - anamax 18y ago
      > would have meant that Bush was not completely inactive on the issue. Actually, he wasn't. He didn't do what you want, but that's a very different than nothing. Are you going with ignorance or "I was trying to emphasize my point"? > I realize I phrased that poorly, and I'm sorry for that, but my point still stands: compared to what we spend on killing each other, the money that is being asked to save our whole way of life is chump change The mainstream folks who want money for climate change disagree. They want hundreds of billions of dollars. If they're wrong, that's a huge deal. Let's see some details supporting your "chump change" estimate. Are they wrong? > Moreover, the issue of climate change runs much deeper than economics alone. Talking about rates of return and deferred action neglect the potential for catastrophe if we simply continue to do nothing. Catastrophe is short-hand for "very expensive", so you're merely making a "numbers-free" economic argument. The AGW folks have predicted the costs of "catastrophe" and "measures to avoid". (The latter are surely low because they don't significantly affect the predicted climate change.) Once again, if they're wrong, that's a big deal. Let's see the details.
Tichy 18y ago
" In the case of the warmists, since you are literally stealing food and medicine from people's mouths with your demands of what is necessary, you better be damn certain you're right." The same goes for you - if the warmists are right, then the non-warmists are stealing food from people's mouths (as farmland will be burned or flooded or whatever).

axod 18y ago

There's a number. For example, trying to prevent developing countries from using coal/oil etc That's harming to those countries. Also it's an absolute ton of money to spend on something that hasn't been proven. I'm of the opinion that it's unlikely we are to blame, we should obviously as always try to use less energy, and we should spend money on more important causes.

jacoblyles 18y ago

Rational decision making always involves assessing the (probable) costs and benefits of potential actions. If the potential benefit is small and uncertain, and the cost is large and certain, it probably makes sense to wait and collect more information. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opportunity_cost http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opportunity_cost http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/bjorn_lomborg_sets_global_priorities.html http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/bjorn_lomborg_sets_global... http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/CCC%20Home%20Page.aspx http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/CCC%20Home%20Page.aspx

thaumaturgy 18y ago
A friend and I once carried several large pieces of trash out of a wilderness area. We were sore, and tired, and our packs were heavy, and we were eager to go home and shower and eat some junk food. I'm glad we didn't make a rational decision.
- koningrobot 18y ago
  You are glad based on how it made you feel, not on what impact it made. Most probably it didn't have much impact and you might as well have dropped the trash. Not that that's what I would've done, but saying we should trust our emotions on this big and costly problem makes no sense. Of course, throwing rationality out of the window by definition doesn't make any sense. I'm not sure what your point is.
  - thaumaturgy 18y ago
    I was taking issue with the definition of a "rational" decision in terms of environment as merely a cost-benefit analysis. I'm, frankly, sick of cost-benefit analysis being applied to everything. It has become the hammer that's turning everything into a nail. It's led to a pretty ugly state of software in a lot of different arenas, because a CBA doesn't support spending much time running down memory leaks, or trying to reduce software footprint. The problem with using CBA in software -- and more to the point, in the environment -- is that it ignores the cumulative effect of lots of small decisions. Each individual action may not make "rational" sense in terms of CBA, but the consequences quickly add up. To go back to my specific example, you're right that our hauling out some of the trash probably had very little positive impact on our environment. However, it is the cumulative actions of us and others like us who ensure that our trails stay clean. For yet another example, if you climb Mount Rainier in Washington, you are expected to pack out all of your waste. I would guess the average trip time to the summit and back to be about three to four days, so that means that parties must carry their poop in their pack. From an individual cost-benefit point of view, that's ridiculous and not rational. It requires a lot of effort for -- on an individual basis -- little environmental benefit. However, it's the cumulative impact of thousands of summit parties every year that has a very real, and very detrimental, impact on the mountain's ecology. Basically, cost-benefit analysis is a stupid, shortsighted way to make decisions.

FictiveEvan 18y ago

I read of an interesting thought experiment once - a way to take the moral judgment out of the anthropogenic global warming debate. Imagine that there were never fossil fuels or elevated CO2 levels. Now imagine that scientists have (somehow) determined that the sun has suddenly increased its energy output in such a way that would exactly mimic on this imaginary planet, the proposed effect of elevated CO2 on our planet (this turns out to be about a 0.3% increase in output). Would this discovery warrant massively restructuring the world economy by central decree in an attempt to counteract the sun? The spending of billions (trillions?) of dollars? These are the decisions you are making when you err on the side of caution.

thaumaturgy 18y ago
That doesn't make sense to me. It completely sidesteps both the questions of responsibility, as well as questions about our desired environment. I am -- or was, before my "startup" days -- an avid hiker, backpacker, etc.; to me, your thought experiment translates this way: Imagine that I was out hiking, and that I see a bunch of trash on the trail. Now imagine that the trash doesn't belong to me. Should I pick it up? It doesn't make sense to me that, as a species with the ability to dramatically affect our environment, we should choose to not take care of it. It doesn't make sense to me that we would spoil our own living conditions. To get back to your thought experiment: if the causes behind global warming were out of our control, but if the global warming had the potential to create an environment which we didn't want to live in, and if we had the power to counteract the changes, then I think it makes sense to do so. As a practical matter, "massively restructuring the world economy" is also known as progress. We're certainly not going to burn coal in space.
- eds 18y ago
  "As a practical matter, 'massively restructuring the world economy' is also known as progress." Except that the next three words were "by central decree."
- FictiveEvan 18y ago
  I think your analogy is flawed, since it assumes that the trash was put there by another person (just like CO2 in the atmosphere was put there by other people). A better one would be if you came upon a barren, ugly landscape - would you be morally obligated to improve it? That said, I see your point about us humans managing our environment and making it more to our liking. We've been doing it for thousands of years. I just don't understand what basis we have for making the sort of radical changes proposed by "climate change" alarmists. How do we know the outcome will be to our liking?