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In 2030-2050, passenger rail will be obsolete. Self-driving cars will surpass them on every metric. After AI* obsoletes physical safety as an engineering proble
by uvdiv 14y ago
In 2030-2050, passenger rail will be obsolete. Self-driving cars will surpass them on every metric. After AI* obsoletes physical safety as an engineering problem, cars will shrink to tiny, weightless pieces of plastic most closely approximating today's motorcycles. And following Jevon's paradox, the massive efficiency gains will push economic driving to extreme speeds. As fast as bullet trains, without the timetables.
*AI from 2013's POV; in 2030 it will be just another dumb algorithm
- rayiner 14y agoThe idea that in 20 years we'll have self-driving cars on any substantial scale is totally ridiculous. If I had to bet money, we won't even have a substantial electric car deployment by then, much less self-driving cars. Also: the physics of high-speed cars makes the concept of cars traveling as fast as bullet trains totally ridiculous. The fact that a car is self-driving doesn't change the physics of tire/road friction.
- uvdiv 14y agoAlso: the physics of high-speed cars makes the concept of cars traveling as fast as bullet trains totally ridiculous. The fact that a car is self-driving doesn't change the physics of tire/road friction. Friction losses aren't significant. These cars are limited by aerodynamic drag power -- this scales as speed^3, and dominates all other losses.
- jellicle 14y agoFriction losses aren't significant. These cars are limited by aerodynamic drag power -- this scales as speed^3, and dominates all other losses. No. "Of the energy output of fuel in a car engine, 33% is spent in exhaust, 29% in cooling and 38% in mechanical energy, of which friction losses account for 33% and air resistance for 5%. By comparison, an electric car has only half the friction loss of that of a car with a conventional internal combustion engine." So, meh, even if magic self-driving cars had zero air resistance, they're only 5% more efficient than non-self-driving cars.
- uvdiv 14y agoThese cars are limited by aerodynamic drag power... I mean future self-driving cars travelling at bullet-train speeds. For these, losses are dominated by drag.
- jarcoal 14y agoI won't argue that 2030 will be the magic year, but self-driving is a far greater incentive for most people than being electric powered.
- uvdiv 14y agoYou'll get both, because they're complementary. Self-driving cars will cut the economic cost of electric vehicles: autotaxis will replace private ownership, and their high upfront costs will be split between many users [1]. Conversely, self-driving cars will push performance envelopes, so the EV's enormous efficiency advantage will be desirable. [1] The economics DO NOT work this way yet, because batteries degrade too quickly (Tesla is what, 500 charge-discharge cycles?). Heavier use means proportionally shorter life; no advantage. Solve battery life, and you've solved economics.
- danielweber 14y agoYeah, you have to come up with external reasons (NB: they aren't necessarily bad reasons) to want an electric car. But self-driving cars have very obvious advantages that you don't need to explain anything about climate change or geopolitics to want. I could reclaim about $1000 a week in billable time with a self-driving car (if I billed hourly, which I don't, but I think you get my point).
- waterlesscloud 14y agoWe'll certainly have electric cars on a substantial scale by 2033, and it's likely we'll have self-driving cars deployed in some significant contexts (long distance freeway travel) by then. Social forces will drive the former, economic forces will drive the latter.
- newbie12 14y agoThe auto industry is saying that fully self-driving cars will be on the market in ten years. The safety and entertainment benefits are enormous. Bullet trains require an entirely new track infrastructure, whereas self driving cars are an obvious upgrade to the existing auto infrastructure (which is already 1000x more popular than rail).