Reminds me of this old article: http://www.denbeste.nu/cd_log_entries/2004/06/Economicchaos.shtml http://www.denbeste.nu/cd_log_entries/2004/06/Economicchaos...

Reminds me of this old article: http://www.denbeste.nu/cd_log_entries/2004/06/Economicchaos.shtml http://www.denbeste.nu/cd_log_entries/2004/06/Economicchaos.... Humans learn best by quick feedback (I think Gladwell had an article about this, can't recall). In complex systems, such as economies, changes can take a long, long time to propagate. Teasing out true cause and effect is pretty much impossible. (Programming large systems can be this way too) Given this lag time, decision makers never really learn to be experts, since there's no quick feedback.