3 ms·
I don't get it - warby parker seems to already be killing it, brand and mindshare wise. I could easily see them following a path similar to any number of fashio
by trotsky 14y ago
I don't get it - warby parker seems to already be killing it, brand and mindshare wise. I could easily see them following a path similar to any number of fashion brands - closely held and reliably growing and profitable for decades.
But now, to shoot for the half a billion minimum exit in 7-8 years or less because these venture firms financial models only work one way. Since the probability of a young eyeware company organically arriving at a five hundred million dollar rain is essentially zero, it almost guaranteed they've got to plot a new course or ten. Now every decision you make has to include evaluating if it would alienate one of few potential suitors, or if it can provide growth and market numbers that would look good on a prospectus.
I'm not privy to their numbers, so maybe I am just a victim of a really good hype machine. But my impression is that they've got strong sales growth, margins that most ecommerce shops would die for, strong customer loyalty and would be profitable if you limited spending to core business and traditional customer acquisition models.
Considering how overheated the commercial bond market is (and shows no serious signs of waining) I think there's a real possibility somebody like Warby Parker could do a debt or convertible debt deal at surprisingly nice terms. You could do a lot with say $20M for 7 years at 6% and still own a company you don't hate working for at the end of it all.
Sure, conventional wisdom says it's impossible to raise for web/tech outside of the specialized PE cliques. But that truism developed in an age where a) sovereign debt paid 5% and equity markets were reliably bullish in decade based timescales.
Ecomom almost certainly could have been a reliably profitable company at some level and contribute a number of high paying american jobs to the economy. But because that's the last thing any venture investor is looking for they went down a rabbit hole of wasteful gambles where growth trumped logic.