My only point is that whether something is in the past or in the future has nothing to do with whether you can use probability. If you're consistent then either

My only point is that whether something is in the past or in the future has nothing to do with whether you can use probability. If you're consistent then either you don't use probability at all to model lack of knowledge, or you use it for both past and future. For example if you find it valid to say "when he tosses that coin, it has 50% probability to land on heads and a 50% probability to land on tails", then you should also find it valid to say "he tossed that coin, and it now has a 50% probability to be on heads and 50% probability to be on tails" if you did not yet see the coin. That's because in both cases, the outcome was already determined (by the laws of physics, disregarding quantum mechanics). The thing is that you just don't know which way it will land or has landed because you lack perfect knowledge. I don't have a problem with not using probability to model lack of knowledge, but you have to apply that principle consistently (and whether it is ethically desirable to use probability is an entirely different and even more difficult question than whether or not it leads to accurate beliefs). That said, I do prefer to use probability to model lack of knowledge, because what is the alternative? Ad hoc gut feeling based reasoning?