5 ms·
Why? If you buy into exponentially increasing progress, then most of the graphs seem to indicate that it will happen within a lifespan from now, especially if
by endtime 18y ago
Why? If you buy into exponentially increasing progress, then most of the graphs seem to indicate that it will happen within a lifespan from now, especially if you consider the medical advances that will come in the intervening time.
- khafra 18y agoAll real-world exponential curves I can think of eventually reverse precipitously, or at least plateau.
- dmix 18y agoThis is mentioned in Kurzweil's Singularity book. With Moores Law, he expects transistors to peak at 2020 and molecular computing to take over after that and continue the growth. He believes innovation and paradigm shifts supplement the plateauing of S-curves.