It strikes me as being rather too naive politically. We can't expect perfect hindsight but predicting how politics develops in states focused on the extraction

It strikes me as being rather too naive politically. We can't expect perfect hindsight but predicting how politics develops in states focused on the extraction of natural resources and close ethnic ties isn't rocket science. Highly organized ethnic groups take control and use oil resources to maintain political support. It is why strongmen in the middle east so often come from ethnic or religious minorities. (Syria, Iraq to name a few). Tribal structures make it impossible for a liberal opposition to build a winning coalition. Democracy isn't magic and just suggesting that we should help democratic parties when we can is a 'no kidding' suggestion.