Isn't that just basic market analysis? All he does is applying Porter's good old five forces (Competition, Substitutes, Buyer Power, Supply (Chain), Rivalry) an

Isn't that just basic market analysis? All he does is applying Porter's good old five forces (Competition, Substitutes, Buyer Power, Supply (Chain), Rivalry) and modifying it to the Oil market. I don't really see there the "new" component, but thankfully he clarifies that is intention is not to be predictive. When talking about Geo Politics I just can not resist recommending "Essence Of Decision"[1], in my opinion one of the most excellent books on that subject. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Essence_of_Decision http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Essence_of_Decision "the founding study of the John F. Kennedy School of Government, and in doing so revolutionized the field of international relations"