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So the 10 btc I bought a couple years ago for ~$2 are now "worth" $300 USD. Do I sell them now, or wait 20 years until they're worth more? How do you know when

by geuis 14y ago

So the 10 btc I bought a couple years ago for ~$2 are now "worth" $300 USD. Do I sell them now, or wait 20 years until they're worth more? How do you know when to wait longer, and when to sell? Its not like a company where you can at least get some information on their past and future performance, whether they are growing or shrinking, etc.

polshaw 14y ago
The volatility of BTC is useful in such situations. If you sold now, the price may rise to $40, then crash to $15, and then rise again to new heights. So if you do sell (and are keen to stay in the long-game), you have to be confident that you will be able to buy in again at below that price (NB transaction costs). If you achieve that (which is done most effectively by guessing when the peak of the bubble occurs) then you wouldn't lose out it the long term. Then you have to weigh up the risk vs reward..
josephagoss 14y ago
Well to be honest if you cash out now all you have is $300, which is a fantastic rise but not a lot of money. This is the way I see it, its only a days earning or even less, so I would hold on to it for the next decade as a experiment and see what happens. Would you pay $300 to be in on this game for the next 10 years? :)
drcode 14y ago
According to the efficient market hypothesis (which you may or may not agree with) the only guide you have as to how much something is worth in the future is the current price, as well as "future information" which is not currently available (if it was already available somewhere, it would already be priced in.) In other words, no one can answer that question for you :)
javert 14y ago
If you want to sell them without the pain of going through an exchange or whatever, I'll probably send you money in the mail for them.
coopdog 14y ago
Spend it on bitcoin merchants! Then cash $300 more meat dollars into BTC Don't speculate, keep the currency flowing : P

by geuis 14y ago

polshaw 14y ago

The volatility of BTC is useful in such situations. If you sold now, the price may rise to $40, then crash to $15, and then rise again to new heights. So if you do sell (and are keen to stay in the long-game), you have to be confident that you will be able to buy in again at below that price (NB transaction costs). If you achieve that (which is done most effectively by guessing when the peak of the bubble occurs) then you wouldn't lose out it the long term. Then you have to weigh up the risk vs reward..

josephagoss 14y ago

Well to be honest if you cash out now all you have is $300, which is a fantastic rise but not a lot of money. This is the way I see it, its only a days earning or even less, so I would hold on to it for the next decade as a experiment and see what happens. Would you pay $300 to be in on this game for the next 10 years? :)

drcode 14y ago

According to the efficient market hypothesis (which you may or may not agree with) the only guide you have as to how much something is worth in the future is the current price, as well as "future information" which is not currently available (if it was already available somewhere, it would already be priced in.) In other words, no one can answer that question for you :)

javert 14y ago

If you want to sell them without the pain of going through an exchange or whatever, I'll probably send you money in the mail for them.

coopdog 14y ago

Spend it on bitcoin merchants! Then cash $300 more meat dollars into BTC Don't speculate, keep the currency flowing : P