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There is much, much, more merchant acceptance, transaction volume, etc. for Bitcoin compared to the last time there was a big rise; not to mention production is

by eof 14y ago

There is much, much, more merchant acceptance, transaction volume, etc. for Bitcoin compared to the last time there was a big rise; not to mention production is only half of what it was before; ASICs are here/on the horizon, YC has funded a bitcoin startup, it's mentioned basically daily in the blogs of major publications, etc. It is also worth taking a look at a log-scale chart to see that the rise isn't quite so steep as before: http://www.bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl http://www.bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25... Clearly a lot of speculation going on here; but I very strongly doubt we will see a crash anything like we saw last time (how many people were preaching that the end of bitcoin had come?); though a significant correction when people start taking their profit seems almost inevitable. Anecdotally, a number of people I have been telling to buy bitcoins for years now are finally like, "well okay, I am just going to wait till it drops to $xx or so (where xx is ~40% less than whatever it is at the moment we have the conversation).

zobzu 14y ago
well yeah it makes sense, they already missed the train. it's hard to predict when you're not in the known. will it keep rising? they don't know. someone like you have a much better insight of the risk. its how the market works, except when its young, the amount of people in the known is low. Thus there is more potential gains
Steko 14y ago
"I very strongly doubt we will see a crash anything like we saw last time" This assumes that all crashes are built the same. In fact they are not. An an example, increased usage and profile also greatly increase the likelihood that governments come in and panic investors.
- conroe64 14y ago
  Another thing to worry about is something better coming along. As soon as it does, bitcoins will crash and never recover, since their only worth is they are better than anything else for making anonymous secure trades. If Ripple or soemthing else begins to take off, that may change.

by eof 14y ago

zobzu 14y ago

well yeah it makes sense, they already missed the train. it's hard to predict when you're not in the known. will it keep rising? they don't know. someone like you have a much better insight of the risk. its how the market works, except when its young, the amount of people in the known is low. Thus there is more potential gains

Steko 14y ago

"I very strongly doubt we will see a crash anything like we saw last time" This assumes that all crashes are built the same. In fact they are not. An an example, increased usage and profile also greatly increase the likelihood that governments come in and panic investors.

conroe64 14y ago
Another thing to worry about is something better coming along. As soon as it does, bitcoins will crash and never recover, since their only worth is they are better than anything else for making anonymous secure trades. If Ripple or soemthing else begins to take off, that may change.