4 ms·
Reminds me a bit (apocryphal?) of the first test of the atomic bomb at Trinity. All the famous scientists had put down bets on how big the explosion would be.
by scarmig 14y ago
Reminds me a bit (apocryphal?) of the first test of the atomic bomb at Trinity.
All the famous scientists had put down bets on how big the explosion would be. Edward Teller, IIRC, had a macabre one: it would set off a chain reaction that would ignite the atmosphere through nitrogen and hydrogen fusion.
Calculations were done, and the possibility of it happening was shown to be one in a million. The test went ahead.
- gamegoblin 14y agoNot a very wise bet. Even if he won, it would hardly matter!
- raverbashing 14y agoYes, if they were right, it wouldn't matter much, but it would energy a lot
- martinced 14y ago"Calculations were done, and the possibility of it happening was shown to be one in a million." "shown"!? "supposed" you mean right!? Or is there one in a million chance of this happening any time a nuclear bomb is/was tested?
- Tuna-Fish 14y agoThat's not quite correct. The calculations disproved it to a certainty of one against a million. Or, to put it in another way, the data they had clearly showed that it couldn't happen, but taking into account all known sources of errors, there was a one-in-a-million chance that the data they had was the result of random errors.
- Filligree 14y ago..and a much larger chance that the scientists had made a mistake somewhere in the calculations.
- gwern 14y agoIt's not apocryphal. You can actually download the analysis they did and see the calculations for yourself. (I did; it was wasted on me.) http://lesswrong.com/lw/rg/la602_vs_rhic_review/ http://lesswrong.com/lw/rg/la602_vs_rhic_review/ (The link in Yudkowsky's essay seems to currently be down, but if you google the filename you find mirrors like www.fas.org/sgp/othergov/doe/lanl/docs1/00329010.pdf )