Hmm... I think that a per capita view of the tipping point misses too many key conditions underlying a true tipping point. My instinct is that the tipping poin

Hmm... I think that a per capita view of the tipping point misses too many key conditions underlying a true tipping point. My instinct is that the tipping point would differ wildly based on the community characteristics i.e. availability of jobs, quality of schools, racial tensions, prevalence of drug or alcohol availability and/or abuse I think the tipping point is more a factor of figuring out at what point the incentives for behavior that puts you at risk for incarceration enough to counter the risk of the incarceration given your current state/status/level of resources. Additionally, I think in many circumstances the threat of imprisonment is dulled both because as serving prison time gets more prevalent in a community it becomes more normal/acceptable as a risk (prison inflation if you will) and because as serving prison time reduces alternative options for earning a decent livelihood for the re-entry community it may ends up paradoxically more worth it to risk future prison time.