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Free transportation for life
- jbuzbee 14y agoFree transportation for life? Sounds good, but what about maintenance such as battery replacement, tire replacement, windshield, fluids, plus insurance, tolls, parking etc. May not be as expensive as fuel, but there's no such thing as a free-ride
- maxmcd 14y agoExactly, and during those 3-4 decades that the car is around, you have to replace the battery pack 3-4 times. I'm all for EV's and the apparently impressive quality of this specific car, but it would be nice to see a more accurate cost benefit analysis.
- kux 14y agoBattery replacements are around 10k/decade[1]. Quite a bit less than the 30k/decade estimated petrol specific costs provided by the author. 1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_S#Battery http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_S#Battery
- greenyoda 14y agoYour break-even point depends a lot on how much you drive each year. I drive about 3000 miles a year (primarily to get to mass transit) and my car gets about 25 mpg in local driving, using 120 gallons of gas a year. At around $4 per gallon, that's only $480 a year or $4800 per decade. My car is 12 years old, so I'd expect a car bought this year to be more efficient.
- alberich 14y agoI think I'm missing something. How's that you'll be driving "for free" ? Someone has to pay for the energy the cars will be spending.The cars need maintenance. The car will be the "fastest, sexyest" for how long? There is no free lunch. And Mr. Musk is not trying to give humanity free drive for life... he's just trying to make money. He is just trying to make his stuff popular so he can sell more of it and make more money. It's just business.
- lox 14y agoThe article claims that the supercharging stations are solar. The whole point of the article is about independence from oil, if you ignore the hyperbolic title. Jason isn't saying Tesla isn't out to make money, simply that they are out to make money from great cars, rather than the oil industry. I'm still skeptical that the charging stations will scale up to a national scale, but I admire Musk trying.
- elemeno 14y agoAs another comment on here points out, the power produced from the solar panels is nowhere near enough to power the charging station. At best, it helps them offset the costs slightly due to the difference between the price they sell the (solar) power to the grid, and the price they pay for power from the grid - there's a 18-20 cent/kWh difference in their favour.
- alberich 14y agoSo, actually the tax payers are paying for the "free" ride :)
- aqme28 14y agoCompletely ignores the cost of the car, which is elevated to pay for the charging stations. Especially notable is this part: "If you make a middle-class salary of, say, $40k to $60k after tax in the USA, you're spending 5% to 15% of it on gas." If you make a middle-class salary of $40k to $60k, you probably aren't buying a Model S.
- BruceIV 14y agoWhat got me is a charge rate of "150 miles of drive time in an hour" - so it takes an hour to charge for every 2.5 hours of driving?
- maxmcd 14y agoYes, that is one of the EV issues. Primarily why, I assume, hybrids and electric cars like the Volt have seen more widespread use because they have a gasoline fallback. The popular counter argument is that the vast majority of daily driving amounts to less than 40 miles.
- BruceIV 14y agoFair enough - but you'd need a charging station at your destination to make the OP's argument work, because if you charge your car at home every night like your phone, you're on the hook for the electricity (which probably costs more per mile than gasoline - I don't know, but I know it's cheaper to heat with diesel then electricity, so I assume auto fuel is similar)
- bosie 14y ago> which probably costs more per mile than gasoline Though electric cars are much more efficient [1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car#Energy_efficiency https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car#Energy_efficiency
- rtkwe 14y agoVery incorrect. A short back of the napkin calculation: 286mi/85kwh / .12 (dollar per kilowatt hour) = 28 miles per dollar or .03 per mile. Gasoline on the other hand is: 30 mpg / 3.50 (dollar per gallon) = 8.5 miles per dollar or .11 per mile Electricity comes out far better. Cars are much less efficient than heaters at capturing the stored energy from it's fuel. With a heater you have the benefit of insulation and none of the losses associated with moving a hunk of metal through air.
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- droithomme 14y ago> 1. Supercharging stations cost very little to install False. > 2. They are solar powered False. The ones with solar paneled roofs do produce electricity which is sold to the electric company at an inflated rate of 26-32 cents a kWh, the station then buys normally produced electricity back at normal rates of 8-12 cents a kWh. The electricity produced is nowhere near enough to maintain a four car charging station that is running 85kWh 90 minute long recharges or 40kWh 30 minute long recharges on 4 cars throughout the day, this is a simple matter of physics, area, and solar technology. > 3. They can dump 150 miles of drive time into your car in an hour True.
- gcb0 14y ago> 3. They can dump 150 miles of drive time into your car in an hour can't wait to be able to charge my phone at one.
- julian37 14y ago3. They can dump 150 miles of drive time into your car in an hour Which works out to what, one hour of idling at the station for every two hours of driving, making your trip roughly 50% longer compared to a gasoline car? We need much better batteries and/or better charging technology for this to become attractive. Graphene-based batteries are a promising candidate: https://vimeo.com/51873011 https://vimeo.com/51873011 (For the record, I think Tesla and their Supercharging stations are awesome, just wondering why the author would list this ridiculously long stay at the charging station as a "mind blowing" feature.) (And yes, battery swapping instead of recharging would also solve the problem.)
- cpursley 14y agoAgree with overall idea expect the call for government involvement. Let the market figure this out. If the math makes sense for most people, then it makes sense. If I could get a 25-35k electric vehicle with free or cheap charging and 150 miles on a charge, I'm in.
- saosebastiao 14y agoOh, so we have been hoodwinked, duped, and bamboozled by the mysterious "political industrial complex" huh? All this time, electric vehicles have been perfectly viable and competitive with internal combustion? It is all just a big conspiracy? That is a perfectly interesting opinion...but it also happens to be one that will make me disregard any further opinions you might have.
- pedalpete 14y agoGreat read, but a bit too much blowing sunshine. The idea of 'free' energy for purchasing a car which will last significantly longer than your current car could have major long-term economic ramifications which could need to be considered in the long-term. I'm not saying we shouldn't be doing these things, it's great, it's innovative and disruptive. But cars that last longer and don't need as much repairs (theoretically) means less being built, less being repaired, less jobs all the way down the line from the manufacture of spare parts to the installation and general maintenance. There are similar implications for moving from the massively complex oil industry to a much simpler and flexible electric one. Particularly if solar is the chosen source, vs. hydro or nuclear where, I think, more people would be needed in the process. Lastly, a reduction of spending and resulting taxes (which for fuel are currently huge) would also have mass implications for government. Maybe we don't label any of these things good/bad. They just are, and will need to be dealt with. I hope people are looking at these opportunities and the implications for the economy. Lastly, how do people feel about calling Elon Musk the 'heir to Steve Jobs and the second coming of da Vinci'? To me, he is as different from those two as they are to each other. Prolific and brilliant, absolutely, but Steve Jobs isn't the second coming of Rockafeller, so why the comparisons, and do they fit?
- SapphireSun 14y agoc.f. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window We can redeploy those resources to other ventures, even if there is some short-to-medium term pain. That said, yes, the OP was overoptimistic in the short term, but I don't see how he's wrong in the long term as the price comes down for the Model S and renewable energy is deployed more extensively.
- jeffreyrusso 14y agoYou could say the same things about the internet or about software... that ingraining these technologies into every part of our society could have major long-term economic ramifications that deserve consideration. Even today, the number of low to middle-wage jobs that could still be replaced with software-driven solutions will amount to a huge number of jobs that will no longer be necessary. Agree with you that we shouldn't label these things good or bad - they represent progress. But we shouldn't ignore the likely ramifications of massive shifts like this until society feels the pain.
- _mulder_ 14y agoInteresting article but too many holes to hold much weight. In no particular order.. You only don't pay for the charging electricity when using a supercharging station. If 'free' travel involves spending an hour a day at a service station waiting for the car to charge, then it doesn't seem quite so free! It would be more convenient to charge overnight at home but then you pay for this energy. A minor point, but name any consumer device made in 1985 still receiving regular updates, software or hardware. Finally, Selling a vehicle that only needs replacing every 50 years isn't going to be much of a business plan. Negativity aside, I think its a great idea. I rarely drive more than 60 miles a day and I'd love to have an electric car. I'd even hook it up to some solar panels and I'm sure the economics would be comparable to a fuel car. If only the cars were a shade cheaper.
- saraid216 14y ago> Selling a vehicle that only needs replacing every 50 years isn't going to be much of a business plan. It makes me sad that this is true. Is this really the only place we can go now? We have to produce crappy product in order to artificially create turnover so that income remains steady? It makes me hate capitalism.
- HeyLaughingBoy 14y agoAre you serious? Your definition of a crappy car is one that doesn't last 50 years? I've heard of high standards, but really...
- saraid216 14y agoIt's a problem in virtually all industries. Lasting solutions simply aren't a good business model.
- HeyLaughingBoy 14y agoThat's odd. Last I heard, farm and construction equipment manufacturers were doing a great business selling stuff that stood up to decades of hard work. Of course, they cost multiples of what a cheap family car (itself capable of a decade+ of use with proper maintenance) does, but that's a minor issue. And there are those annoying over-the-road trucks that easily rack up well over 1,000,000 miles and keep going. But it's a crappy business model, so they should all be out of business tomorrow! Of course you can build a car that will last 50 years. The problem is that very few people would be willing to pay the price, so no one bothers making them. FWIW, I have a garden tractor in my garage that's coming up on 30 years old and I expect to get at least another 10 years out of it.
- jstalin 14y agoSo much pessimism here. Although I can't afford a Tesla S, I thank god for those who can. They are the early adopters that make the market for future models that surely will be cheaper, either from Tesla or another company. Tesla is on to an awesome idea and so far it's an exciting execution. If only they could get the price for a supercharge-capable car down to $30k, then I'd be happy to get one.
- Datsundere 14y agoI turn off my computer at night to save electricity.
- TamDenholm 14y agoJust one minor comment, he used to spend $250 a month on gas, i'm amazed, thats absolutely nothing. Here in the UK it costs me £100GBP to fill my tank with diesel, which lasts about 10 days, granted i drive a fair bit, but £300 a month is $465 USD. So i hear ye, bring the electric cars and their super charging stations over here, i'll deal with the minor inconvenience of waiting an hour for a charge, which i personally think is a temporary problem. In the mean time, i'm planning to see how viable making my own biodiesel is.
- gcb0 14y agoyeah, americans have no value for gas. before moving here i'd spend USD$300/month for my weekend car. but mostly because i didn't have to drive to work or bars. now here it's still USD$300/month, but i can't buy bread without burning 1~2gallons of gas. i estimate i'm burning at least 3x more. minimum.
- TamDenholm 14y agoJust because i was curious, i did a quick google: [1] Cheapest gas in California is $3.71 a gallon. [2] Cheapest petrol in UK is £1.32 a litre (rounded) 100 litre fill up in UK is £132 or $204.88 100 litre fill up in Cali is £97.89 or $124.43 [1] http://www.californiagasprices.com/ [2] http://www.petrolprices.com/
- sturmeh 14y agoJust base the supercharger stations around fast-food restaurants.
- malbs 14y agoMaking your own biodiesel is completely viable. Until the tipping point where there are too many people making their own biodiesel, and you find yourself competing with everyone else for access to oil/raw material
- gcb0 14y agoi can pay $20k for a car (actually driving one that i paid $2k, but i will leave that edge case out). then i can use $10k of gas a year. maybe will have $10k year of repairs. and it is certain and proven for ages. now, tesla. I have to pay $60~80k... not depending on leather or comfort, but how far I have to drive! then there's the fact that there's still not know pricing model for charging stations. it's all fine now that the costs of the cars are paying for it. but what will happen next year if Kia starts to make electrics. do you really think Elon will continue to let everyone uses their power stations? will he make it tesla only (and ultimately failing his model as nobody will be able to charge easily as every company will do the same) or will he start to charge for it? Then there's the fact that nobody knows if those cars will last the same as my $20k 2nd hand cars. How much will you spend on battery over 10years? may be zero. may be another $60k. so, option A) $20k upfront, $10~20k an year for gas/repairs. option B) 60~80k upfront, 0 to $80k an year. yeah, having $0/year would pay off option B in 4years, but it's not certain. The fact that i never spent one dollar in Vegas will make me stick to option A for now.
- RansomJac 14y agoThey're currently Tesla only...
- jaggederest 14y agoBattery pack replacements are going to be the cost of ownership of electric cars. With as extensive a pack of batteries as they have, it'll be very expensive. Lithium ions discharged at least every other day only last ~5 years.
- malbs 14y agoOnce everyone is driving a Tesla, and filling up for "free", where do the taxes come from to pay for the infrastructure? In Australia, the high price of fuel comes because the government puts something like a 50+% tax on it. Most people (incorrectly) assume that your car registration pays for infrastructure dev/maint, but car registration just pays for insurance/payouts for car crashes, and running of the registration system. Most of themoney used to build and maintain roads, highways, etc, comes from the fuel tax. If we transfer to a new form of fuel that is supposedly free as this article suggests, where does the aus government look to get the money to pay for the roads?
- pinchyfingers 14y agoThis article is old. Also, J cal wants to have Elon's babies so bad.
- yock 14y agoThe nerd in me couldn't resist doing the math, and given a few starting figures for my current situation ($13,500 car loan,60 months, good interest rate, $350/mo on gas) it would take 14 years of driving a Model S to make up for the fact that I'm not paying for gas. This discounts the fact that I don't have the $1000 - $1500 a month for the Tesla car payment. This electric car business is exciting for sure, but it'll be some time before it benefits my income bracket.
- JumpCrisscross 14y agoI wondered what the present value of people's expected gas expenses are, i.e. if you told a random American you'd give them free gas until the end of their days (given they consume gas at the author's rate), how much would you have to set aside today into a safe asset to cover the future expense? TL;DR about $100 000, without hedging longevity and fuel price volatility risks. The median U.S. age in 2011 was 37.3 years [1]. Thus, the median year of birth was 1973 and cohort life expectancy 74.7 years for men and 79.5 years for women, or 77 years on average [2]. Let's assume 39.8 (best 29.8; worst 49.8) years. Let's assume the author's $250/month petrol expense. U.S. city petrol prices have increased at an average (standard deviation; CAGR) of 5.5% (19 percentage points; 3.2%) from 1980 to 2012 [3]. Let's use that (best -13.5%, 0%; 3.2%; worst 24.5%) as our expected gasoline inflation rate. Linearly extrapolating today's 10y30y [4] to 40y we get a crude discount rate of 3.8% (best 3.2%; worst 4%). Thus, those cash flows are worth $167 934 today, though this varies from $16 765 for the best case, $56 038 for the best case assuming flat nominal petrol prices, $106 732 for the base case with CAGR, and $218 031 for the worst case assuming 5.5% petrol inflation (using the worst gave a nonsense result for nominal gas prices). [1] http://www.census.gov/popest/data/national/asrh/2011/tables/NC-EST2011-01.xls http://www.census.gov/popest/data/national/asrh/2011/tables/... [2] http://www.ssa.gov/oact/NOTES/as120/LifeTables_Tbl_7_1970.html http://www.ssa.gov/oact/NOTES/as120/LifeTables_Tbl_7_1970.ht... [3] BLS APU00007471A (U.S. city average, gasoline, all types, per gallon/3.785 liters) [4] http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Bonds http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Bonds
- getabike 14y agoI have free transportation for life, it's called a bicycle. But I guess for those who have to drive, this is great. But bicycling is easier than you think, and has many benefits.