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Maybe a few centuries from now our major societies will no longer rely on population growth. The consequences of this unsustainable approach won't be pretty. My
by genwin 14y ago
Maybe a few centuries from now our major societies will no longer rely on population growth. The consequences of this unsustainable approach won't be pretty. My kid will be expected to financially support at least two retirees via Social Security contributions and pay back a chunk of those borrowed $trillions.
- kaonashi 14y agoYour kid will have to support retirees through the output of his labor; the labor required to support a person is dropping , and soon it can be completely automated. The financial economy is a heuristic to explain the underlying economic conditions, not vice-versa.
- crusso 14y agoThe problem is that "support a person" is also a moving target that is ever inflating. Additionally, distribution inefficiencies (whether you're inclined to believe the bad actors are big government, corporations, or the "1%") also keep moving that target. Look at it this way. Per-capita GDP has gone up over time yet poverty rates have stayed fairly fixed over the last 40 years. See also processor speed vs desktop snappiness over time for a similar example of where the underlying performance drivers may look great but the end result appears to stay the same.
- dublinben 14y agoPoverty is a percentage, not an absolute measure. It will never be eliminated as long as there is a distribution of income.
- crusso 14y agoIt's not a specific percentage because it does fluctuate (not going to look up what it's based on just now), but effectively it will never be eliminated. This is precisely my point to the original poster who postulated that increases in worker productivity were making it easier to support those not working.
- genwin 14y agoAs labor is automated there will be increasing downward pressure on my kid's wages and job prospects. Harder work will be required to pay the taxes that are increased to make up for the falling wages.
- mathieuh 14y agoUntil eventually, Full Communism.
- kaonashi 14y agoAs labor is automated, labor share of profits will fall under current arrangements; and the political pressure to change those arrangements will increase.
- genwin 14y agoBut the political pressure from the wealthy overrides the pressure from the average person. Hence taxes go up as wages fall in response to labor automation.
- neutronicus 14y agoAs labor is automated, the only leverages that will matter are controlling natural resources and the capacity for violence.
- crusso 14y agoI guess if your kids absolutely must work on an assembly line. On the other hand, as automation gets cheaper the barrier to entry for lots of different enterprises continues to go down. See Computers->Desktop Publishing->Web Enterprises or 3D Printers eliminating the need for expensive manufacturing. Automation has increased by leaps and bounds over the last hundred years and comparative wages in industrialized countries have gone up. If you want to look for dangers to your kids (assuming you're American), make sure you take a gander at the national debt. In particular, look at the nation's unfunded liabilities. It's probably too late to do much about them besides try to minimize their impact. The problem is already going to crush your kids.
- neutronicus 14y agoNot the labor required to support an elderly person, believe you fucking me.
- anigbrowl 14y agoPopulation growth is expected to level off by 2050 or thereabouts.