It's not always strictly numbers. Take bee stings. If you're not allergic to bee stings then 25m/1 against dying from it is probably right. You may have been st

It's not always strictly numbers. Take bee stings. If you're not allergic to bee stings then 25m/1 against dying from it is probably right. You may have been stung in the last year and not even noticed it, or thought it was something else. If you're allergic to bee stings then that probably brings your odds up significantly, although it's probably still in the millions to one magnitude.