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Is anyone at all concerned with a Chinese eugenics program? We already know the extent to which China has gone to produce high-caliber athletes, especially for

by defen 14y ago

Is anyone at all concerned with a Chinese eugenics program? We already know the extent to which China has gone to produce high-caliber athletes, especially for the Olympics. (Yao Ming is basically their Kwisatz Haderach[1]) Let's say for the sake of argument that there is an identifiable genetic component to genius/IQ/intellectual achievement. Is the following sequence of events particularly outlandish? 1) This study and others like it discover genetic components to intelligence. 2) China conducts large scale genetic analysis of the intelligentsia / upper classes etc. to find carriers 3) Strong incentives provided for couples to use IVF/embryo selection/whatever to produce children with the maximum number of these intelligence genes 4) 25+ years from now China all of a sudden has a lot more smart people than anywhere else does [1] http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1126765,00.html http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1126765,00....

riggins 14y ago
eugenics and the military/economic impact down the road was my first thought.
deleted 14y ago
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ekm2 14y ago
The evolutionary psychologist Franz Herbert had written a piece about Chinese eugenics some time back http://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838 http://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838
bthomas 14y ago
Yes - (1) and (4) are extremely unlikely, though (2) and (3) are certainly plausible :) More specifically, this study may publish some marginal results about genetics of extreme IQ, but any single effect will likely be so small that nothing actionable will come from it. If (4) is the goal, I suspect they'll have much more success exploring drugs and other cognitive enhancements. What genetics can do is help inform how to discover those drugs - ie. what genes should you study. (Shameless plug: if you like genetics and writing python, drop me an email if you want to work on studies like this!)
- Scaevolus 14y ago
  Why do you think discovering genetic components to intelligence is extremely unlikely? I expect it to be easier to find genetic components for intelligence than for other polygenetic traits like height -- the brain has fewer components influencing development.
  - bthomas 14y ago
    > the brain has fewer components influencing development What do you mean by that? I'd argue the opposite. In a sense, we already have discovered genes for high height with Marfan Syndrome. I think IQ is orders of magnitude more complex. Awesome conversation but probably hard in an online forum, so I'll just cite my favorite example: Dickens and Flynn [1] I absolutely think this study has a chance of revealing some signal, my skepticism is just that it will have any actionable conclusions. Here's a litmus test: what results would allow you to choose from a group of 10 men and 10 women, based only on genotype, which pair is most likely to have a high IQ child. And how would your power compare to just reading all their resumes? [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability_of_IQ#Dickens_and_Flynn_model http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability_of_IQ#Dickens_and_...
    - Scaevolus 14y ago
      Barring specific diseases like Marfan Syndrome, we can't yet explain most of height -- "Height is a highly heritable trait, with estimates of heritability as high as 90%. Recent genome-wide association studies of height have discovered over 180 common variants associated with height. These variants have small effect sizes and collectively explain approximately 10% of the heritability." [1] Growth involves many systems with many types of cells interacting -- digestive, skeletal, endocrine, etc. There's a lot of complexity when you have so many systems involved. By comparison, there are relatively few distinct types of cells in the brain, so the effects of different alleles should be more apparent. In particular, genes controlling sensitivity to and production of neurotransmitters directly impact brain function. If they find many specific mutations that cause better performance on specific tasks (working memory, pattern matching, verbal ability, ...) it should be possible to predict high IQs. I don't expect 100% accurate predictions, but to not find _anything_ would be surprising. Maybe that's your point-- if they only get 10% heritability, it's not really enough for breeding decisions. [1] http://www.plosgenetics.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pgen.1002439 http://www.plosgenetics.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fj...
Strshps1MoreTim 14y ago
Change is the only way forward. If the Western civilization refuses to accept the facts of life and change itself, it will become just an interesting topic in the history books.
ajross 14y ago
I'm not really interested in getting into the conspiracy minutiae, but let me just play devils advocate on #4: What, exactly, would be the harm to humanity of a coming generation of hyper-intelligent Chinese nationals?
- defen 14y ago
  The assumption is that more hyper-intelligent Chinese nationals will mean more world influence for PRC. Whether that's good, bad, or neutral depends on your POV.
- riggins 14y ago
  What, exactly, would be the harm to humanity of a coming generation of hyper-intelligent Chinese nationals? technology drives military power. Therefore, one's POV will be influenced by nationality. Or in plain English, an American probably wouldn't want to be on the wrong side of Chinese drone airforce.
deleted 14y ago
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by defen 14y ago

riggins 14y ago

eugenics and the military/economic impact down the road was my first thought.

deleted 14y ago

[deleted]

ekm2 14y ago

The evolutionary psychologist Franz Herbert had written a piece about Chinese eugenics some time back http://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838 http://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838

bthomas 14y ago

Yes - (1) and (4) are extremely unlikely, though (2) and (3) are certainly plausible :) More specifically, this study may publish some marginal results about genetics of extreme IQ, but any single effect will likely be so small that nothing actionable will come from it. If (4) is the goal, I suspect they'll have much more success exploring drugs and other cognitive enhancements. What genetics can do is help inform how to discover those drugs - ie. what genes should you study. (Shameless plug: if you like genetics and writing python, drop me an email if you want to work on studies like this!)

Scaevolus 14y ago
Why do you think discovering genetic components to intelligence is extremely unlikely? I expect it to be easier to find genetic components for intelligence than for other polygenetic traits like height -- the brain has fewer components influencing development.
- bthomas 14y ago
  > the brain has fewer components influencing development What do you mean by that? I'd argue the opposite. In a sense, we already have discovered genes for high height with Marfan Syndrome. I think IQ is orders of magnitude more complex. Awesome conversation but probably hard in an online forum, so I'll just cite my favorite example: Dickens and Flynn [1] I absolutely think this study has a chance of revealing some signal, my skepticism is just that it will have any actionable conclusions. Here's a litmus test: what results would allow you to choose from a group of 10 men and 10 women, based only on genotype, which pair is most likely to have a high IQ child. And how would your power compare to just reading all their resumes? [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability_of_IQ#Dickens_and_Flynn_model http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability_of_IQ#Dickens_and_...
  - Scaevolus 14y ago
    Barring specific diseases like Marfan Syndrome, we can't yet explain most of height -- "Height is a highly heritable trait, with estimates of heritability as high as 90%. Recent genome-wide association studies of height have discovered over 180 common variants associated with height. These variants have small effect sizes and collectively explain approximately 10% of the heritability." [1] Growth involves many systems with many types of cells interacting -- digestive, skeletal, endocrine, etc. There's a lot of complexity when you have so many systems involved. By comparison, there are relatively few distinct types of cells in the brain, so the effects of different alleles should be more apparent. In particular, genes controlling sensitivity to and production of neurotransmitters directly impact brain function. If they find many specific mutations that cause better performance on specific tasks (working memory, pattern matching, verbal ability, ...) it should be possible to predict high IQs. I don't expect 100% accurate predictions, but to not find _anything_ would be surprising. Maybe that's your point-- if they only get 10% heritability, it's not really enough for breeding decisions. [1] http://www.plosgenetics.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pgen.1002439 http://www.plosgenetics.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fj...

Strshps1MoreTim 14y ago

Change is the only way forward. If the Western civilization refuses to accept the facts of life and change itself, it will become just an interesting topic in the history books.

ajross 14y ago

I'm not really interested in getting into the conspiracy minutiae, but let me just play devils advocate on #4: What, exactly, would be the harm to humanity of a coming generation of hyper-intelligent Chinese nationals?

defen 14y ago
The assumption is that more hyper-intelligent Chinese nationals will mean more world influence for PRC. Whether that's good, bad, or neutral depends on your POV.
riggins 14y ago
What, exactly, would be the harm to humanity of a coming generation of hyper-intelligent Chinese nationals? technology drives military power. Therefore, one's POV will be influenced by nationality. Or in plain English, an American probably wouldn't want to be on the wrong side of Chinese drone airforce.

deleted 14y ago

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