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This article is link bait + self promotion by GTM. Having been involved for years in the energy industry I can assure anyone that GTM is not a known "research"

by antr 14y ago

This article is link bait + self promotion by GTM. Having been involved for years in the energy industry I can assure anyone that GTM is not a known "research" company (hence not trustworthy). The "gold standard" for wind capacity installation, projections, etc., is the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), hands down. GWEC states in their most recent 2012 China report that "By 2015, the installed wind power capacity [in China] will reach 100GW." Source: http://www.gwec.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/China-Outlook-2012-EN.pdf http://www.gwec.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/China-Outlook... China's installed capacity in 2011 was 62.4GW. In 2012 it is projected that another 15-18GW will be installed; that's 80.4GW by year end 2012 (on the high end). If 150GW is expected by 2015, a net average of 23.GW need to be installed per year. That installation rate is unrealistic due to manufacturing constraints.

melling 14y ago
Regardless, it's interesting how China is accelerating past the US on the world stage. Clean energy, high speed rail, etc. So, much is accomplished in so little time. One example, that always sticks in my mind: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Metro http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Metro I wonder how that couple miles of the Second Avenue Subway is coming along?
- rollo_tommasi 14y ago
  It's easy to build infrastructure quickly when you don't have to bother with property rights, worker safety or environmental impact assessments.
  - muhfuhkuh 14y ago
    Eminent Domain is a very real and oft-used legal power that is given, especially by individual states in the US to seize property for whatever "public use" those governments deem worthy, including (but not limited to) road widening, infrastructure (sewer, electric, telecom fibre) improvements, and even private enterprise that trumps individual rights "for the greater good". Please don't think that China holds exclusive dominion over such a concept.
    - prawn 14y ago
      I don't know that the two would be quite the same in practice though. It's likely that public reaction would be more of an issue in the US, etc?
  - notdrunkatall 14y ago
    And if you have a virtually limitless supply of money.
- antr 14y ago
  Right now, on the energy side, one can't really compare the US and China. The US is an already developed country, with considerable infrastructure deployed during the past 50-100 years and well established incumbent players, a region with low/single digit growth, etc. China on the other hand is a huge market, until recently with little or no energy infrastructure, fuelled by a rapidly growing domestic consumption, etc. China has the need to accelerate and be extremely fast in all aspects of its economy, otherwise it is risking not growing at all, with devastating effects to its economy (and the world).
neltnerb 14y ago
I'm still shocked even with your more conservative numbers suggesting that China is merely installing 7-10 nuclear power stations (4x 500MW reactors I'm assuming) worth of wind power per year. I know they're enormous, but WOW. I am very curious what kind of cost per kWhr they are able to achieve at such large scales of deployment when doing the manufacturing locally. I know that shipping and regulatory issues are major cost drivers in the US...
- batgaijin 14y ago
  When are they starting with the thorium ones?

by antr 14y ago

melling 14y ago

Regardless, it's interesting how China is accelerating past the US on the world stage. Clean energy, high speed rail, etc. So, much is accomplished in so little time. One example, that always sticks in my mind: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Metro http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Metro I wonder how that couple miles of the Second Avenue Subway is coming along?

rollo_tommasi 14y ago
It's easy to build infrastructure quickly when you don't have to bother with property rights, worker safety or environmental impact assessments.
- muhfuhkuh 14y ago
  Eminent Domain is a very real and oft-used legal power that is given, especially by individual states in the US to seize property for whatever "public use" those governments deem worthy, including (but not limited to) road widening, infrastructure (sewer, electric, telecom fibre) improvements, and even private enterprise that trumps individual rights "for the greater good". Please don't think that China holds exclusive dominion over such a concept.
  - prawn 14y ago
    I don't know that the two would be quite the same in practice though. It's likely that public reaction would be more of an issue in the US, etc?
- notdrunkatall 14y ago
  And if you have a virtually limitless supply of money.
antr 14y ago
Right now, on the energy side, one can't really compare the US and China. The US is an already developed country, with considerable infrastructure deployed during the past 50-100 years and well established incumbent players, a region with low/single digit growth, etc. China on the other hand is a huge market, until recently with little or no energy infrastructure, fuelled by a rapidly growing domestic consumption, etc. China has the need to accelerate and be extremely fast in all aspects of its economy, otherwise it is risking not growing at all, with devastating effects to its economy (and the world).

neltnerb 14y ago

I'm still shocked even with your more conservative numbers suggesting that China is merely installing 7-10 nuclear power stations (4x 500MW reactors I'm assuming) worth of wind power per year. I know they're enormous, but WOW. I am very curious what kind of cost per kWhr they are able to achieve at such large scales of deployment when doing the manufacturing locally. I know that shipping and regulatory issues are major cost drivers in the US...

batgaijin 14y ago
When are they starting with the thorium ones?