4 ms·

I was having a discussion about this topic with an economist friend of mine. His theory was that if one took automization to its complete and logical conclusio

by acabal 14y ago

I was having a discussion about this topic with an economist friend of mine. His theory was that if one took automization to its complete and logical conclusion, the only people left employed would be "soft" creators like artists and clergy, plus creators of hand-made goods which in that world would fetch an enormous premium. We'd also see a boom for experience-seekers, like tourism and sports. Ultimately I think we're inexorably heading towards that kind of reality. The question is how long will it take, and will it be a peaceful conversion or a violent one. Personally I think innate human greed, pettiness, jealousy, and tribalism is going to make that shift unpleasant for the generation stuck with it. I hope I'm proved wrong.

jiggy2011 14y ago
But surely if handmade goods fetched a premium then the now unemployed masses would use their time learning how to make and making the desirable handmade things thus driving the price down?
woodchuck64 14y ago
Automation/technology seems to drive down prices. My parent's generation had to work an average of 4 hours a day to afford the day's food while my generation averages less than 2 hours. Thus, we can expect the price of necessities to continue to drop until work's primary purpose is to make money to afford luxury items. So that seems less like a violent conversion.
- s_baby 14y ago
  The problem is buying power isn't increasing across all domains of needs. Even though a 3rd world individual can now afford a smart phone and nice clothes my healthcare costs are only going up. Who cares if you can buy "luxury" items for pennies if these formerly middle class people can't secure something as fundamental as their health?
  - woodchuck64 14y ago
    Healthcare is definitely something technology and automation can address. We should expect that healthcare in coming decades will be much cheaper and more effective than that today.
    - s_baby 14y ago
      Maybe but then again people have been predicting the golden age of biology for 2 decades now and that has turned out to be a flop. Plenty of unknowns here.
      - woodchuck64 14y ago
        But look at it in context: in 1921 in the US there were 68 maternal deaths for every 10,000 live births, and the average cost to give birth in a hospital was probably something like $50 or about $500 in today's dollars. In 2007 there were 12.7 maternal deaths per 10,000 and in 2009 the average out of pocket cost was about $1148. Major improvement in quality with marginal cost increase. (statistics cobbled together from http://www.enotes.com/1920-medicine-health-american-decades/health-women-children http://www.enotes.com/1920-medicine-health-american-decades/... http://mchb.hrsa.gov/chusa11/hstat/hsi/pages/208mm.html http://mchb.hrsa.gov/chusa11/hstat/hsi/pages/208mm.html http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/18/us-healthcare-pregnancy-cuttingcosts-idUSBRE88H0LW20120918 http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/18/us-healthcare-preg... http://info.med.yale.edu/library/news/exhibits/hospitals/turnofcentury.html http://info.med.yale.edu/library/news/exhibits/hospitals/tur...)

by acabal 14y ago

jiggy2011 14y ago

But surely if handmade goods fetched a premium then the now unemployed masses would use their time learning how to make and making the desirable handmade things thus driving the price down?

woodchuck64 14y ago

Automation/technology seems to drive down prices. My parent's generation had to work an average of 4 hours a day to afford the day's food while my generation averages less than 2 hours. Thus, we can expect the price of necessities to continue to drop until work's primary purpose is to make money to afford luxury items. So that seems less like a violent conversion.

s_baby 14y ago
The problem is buying power isn't increasing across all domains of needs. Even though a 3rd world individual can now afford a smart phone and nice clothes my healthcare costs are only going up. Who cares if you can buy "luxury" items for pennies if these formerly middle class people can't secure something as fundamental as their health?
- woodchuck64 14y ago
  Healthcare is definitely something technology and automation can address. We should expect that healthcare in coming decades will be much cheaper and more effective than that today.
  - s_baby 14y ago
    Maybe but then again people have been predicting the golden age of biology for 2 decades now and that has turned out to be a flop. Plenty of unknowns here.
    - woodchuck64 14y ago
      But look at it in context: in 1921 in the US there were 68 maternal deaths for every 10,000 live births, and the average cost to give birth in a hospital was probably something like $50 or about $500 in today's dollars. In 2007 there were 12.7 maternal deaths per 10,000 and in 2009 the average out of pocket cost was about $1148. Major improvement in quality with marginal cost increase. (statistics cobbled together from http://www.enotes.com/1920-medicine-health-american-decades/health-women-children http://www.enotes.com/1920-medicine-health-american-decades/... http://mchb.hrsa.gov/chusa11/hstat/hsi/pages/208mm.html http://mchb.hrsa.gov/chusa11/hstat/hsi/pages/208mm.html http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/18/us-healthcare-pregnancy-cuttingcosts-idUSBRE88H0LW20120918 http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/18/us-healthcare-preg... http://info.med.yale.edu/library/news/exhibits/hospitals/turnofcentury.html http://info.med.yale.edu/library/news/exhibits/hospitals/tur...)