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I predict the ABM interception will turn out not to have occurred. We don't have a surveillance system capable of detecting something that size until it hits at

I predict the ABM interception will turn out not to have occurred. We don't have a surveillance system capable of detecting something that size until it hits atmosphere, which means there would only be seconds of warning. That's not enough time to make the decision to fire an ABM.

DanBC 14y ago
> I predict the ABM interception will turn out not to have occurred. I agree. > We don't have a surveillance system capable of detecting something that size until it hits atmosphere, NASA tracks at least 21,000 items above 10 cm diameter. Objects above 3 mm can be tracked by ground based radar. (http://orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/faqs.html#3 http://orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/faqs.html#3) (http://orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/ http://orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/)
- ovi256 14y ago
  Almost all the items NASA tracks have orbits inside the solar system. This thing came out of nowhere (if it's orbiting around the Sun, it's so excentric that the orbit period is very long so it's like we saw it for the first time - if it's not orbiting the Sun, we did see it for the first time).
  - davidcuddeback 14y ago
    The NASA program in question is actually limited to objects in orbit around the Earth. (Orbital Debris is typically out-of-commission satellites and parts of rockets that are still in orbit around the Earth.) We can track objects as small as 10cm that are in orbit around Earth. (schiffern explains in more detail how.) To track potentially hazardous astroids (PHAs), scientists use different methods and are not capable of detecting rocks as small as this one. That doesn't mean that it came from outside the solar system or that it has an eccentric orbit. It just means that it was too small to detect with current methods.
  - _kst_ 14y ago
    What's your basis for asserting that it has (well, had) a particularly eccentric orbit?
- schiffern 14y ago
  Size isn't everything. Tracking objects in Earth orbit is much easier. You can combine multiple radar measurements to tease a signal out of the noise floor, and model the orbital mechanics to achieve better spatial resolution than your instrument can actually resolve.
SideburnsOfDoom 14y ago
> NASA tracks at least 21,000 items above 10 cm diameter. How many items does NASA track which are 10 cm - 10m diameter and not orbiting the earth ?

DanBC 14y ago

> I predict the ABM interception will turn out not to have occurred. I agree. > We don't have a surveillance system capable of detecting something that size until it hits atmosphere, NASA tracks at least 21,000 items above 10 cm diameter. Objects above 3 mm can be tracked by ground based radar. (http://orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/faqs.html#3 http://orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/faqs.html#3) (http://orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/ http://orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/)

ovi256 14y ago
Almost all the items NASA tracks have orbits inside the solar system. This thing came out of nowhere (if it's orbiting around the Sun, it's so excentric that the orbit period is very long so it's like we saw it for the first time - if it's not orbiting the Sun, we did see it for the first time).
- davidcuddeback 14y ago
  The NASA program in question is actually limited to objects in orbit around the Earth. (Orbital Debris is typically out-of-commission satellites and parts of rockets that are still in orbit around the Earth.) We can track objects as small as 10cm that are in orbit around Earth. (schiffern explains in more detail how.) To track potentially hazardous astroids (PHAs), scientists use different methods and are not capable of detecting rocks as small as this one. That doesn't mean that it came from outside the solar system or that it has an eccentric orbit. It just means that it was too small to detect with current methods.
- _kst_ 14y ago
  What's your basis for asserting that it has (well, had) a particularly eccentric orbit?
schiffern 14y ago
Size isn't everything. Tracking objects in Earth orbit is much easier. You can combine multiple radar measurements to tease a signal out of the noise floor, and model the orbital mechanics to achieve better spatial resolution than your instrument can actually resolve.

SideburnsOfDoom 14y ago

> NASA tracks at least 21,000 items above 10 cm diameter. How many items does NASA track which are 10 cm - 10m diameter and not orbiting the earth ?