4 ms·

I'm a white guy (as white as wonder bread and twinkies, only thing missing is the blond hair, and blue eyes) but with an very common first and last name and a P

by Aloha 14y ago

I'm a white guy (as white as wonder bread and twinkies, only thing missing is the blond hair, and blue eyes) but with an very common first and last name and a Persian middle name. For 5 years every time I flew, I was subjected to 'random' extra inspection, and was unable to check in online. When I questioned this, I was absolutely assured it was random, and there was nothing I could do about it. I don't plan on living the rest of my life in fear of the unknown, planes crash, people die, these things happen, its statistically less likely to die from terrorism then it is from a normal plane crash, consider that. I feel your pain, and its absolutely not right, and I hope in my lifetime, we come to our senses or I fear it may eventually result in a revolution.

gph 14y ago
> its statistically less likely to die from terrorism then it is from a normal plane crash, consider that. From a purely passenger point of view this might be true, but if you include the total deaths from WTC/Pentagon I bet it comes out in a wash. Normal plane crashes do not occur that frequently in the US, I doubt the total deaths from commercial flights is much higher than ~3000
- MaysonL 14y ago
  Essentially, on 9/11, the US total death rate doubled for a day. From a statistical point of view, a minor blip.
  - refurb 14y ago
    I'm going to assume the US daily death rate is a pretty constant number. You wouldn't consider the doubling of it to be more than a statistical blip?
    - aurelianito 14y ago
      I would just consider it an outlier and don't fret too much about it if went down to the usual level the next day.
- dalke 14y ago
  Depending on the window that you use, you've lost that bet. Using the numbers from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accidents_and_incidents_involving_airliners_in_the_United_States http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accidents_and_incidents... and including the fatalities on the ground: 985 fatalities in the 1980s, 1277 in the 1990s, and (excluding 9/11) 512 in the 2000s. This adds up to 2774. I started to include the pre-1980 numbers, but it became too tedious. From what I got so far, there have been 3606 commercial aviation related fatalities since 1970, and over 4656 fatalities total in US-located commercial aviation history. Pan Am Flight 830 had 1 fatality due to a terrorist bomb, which I put in the non-9/11 column. I put EgyptAir Flight 990 as a suicide+murder (or accident) and not due to terrorism. However, this excludes accidents from US carriers not in the US (Pan Am 1736 in Tenerife; 583 fatalities in 1977), and includes accidents from non-US carriers which took place in the US (Air Canada 797; 23 fatalities in 1983). I did it this way because you qualified it as "in the US." Just under 3,000 fatalities occurred due to 9/11. The full statistical analysis would decrease the chance of death slightly to remove the 19 hijackers and observe that the same person could not be on all flights at the same time, reducing the count by about 150. These minor details don't affect the overall analysis. The worldwide numbers are listed at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_accidents_and_incidents http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_accidents_and_incident... . From 2002 to 2011 there were 11,068 aviation fatalities. This likely includes fatalities on the ground because it lists 4,140 fatalities for all of 2001, which is about 3000+(11068/10). I don't know how many of those other fatalities are due to terrorism. Worldwide then, if you pick any period of three or more years, you are more likely to die by a plane accident than by terrorist attack. In the US, if you look at the last 40 years of flights, you are still more likely to die by accident than by terrorist attack. For the usual sense of scale for these matters, there were 32,367 automobile deaths in the US in 2011, or 1.10 deaths per 100 million vehicle miles traveled. Airlines have about 1 death for each 2,000 million miles traveled. (Neither of these statistics include non-traveler fatalities.)
  - Aloha 14y ago
    I was looking at the 10 years from 9/11, when I made the statement.
    - 14y ago
pasbesoin 14y ago
Aside from all the rest (not to discount it), stories such as this lead me to believe that the government and the TSA are lying to the public. I'm not content to live in a society where the government persistently lies to me and insists upon ruling with "secret" laws and policies. Aside from the emotional impact, such an asymmetry of information does not foster a democratic process.
- Aloha 14y ago
  I think it could be as something as a keyword match, and its either my middle name, or the fact that I have such a common first and last name that matches me to someone, somewhere who may or may not have done something, at some point in time.
  - rthomas6 14y ago
    It's probably the second one. My little brother used to be on some sort of list that caused us some problems, and he has a very generic American name. This was when he was ~12.
abecedarius 14y ago
I'm a white American with a Persian first name, and while I don't get the 'random' pull-out every time, it's quite often. (Maybe a third of the time? Just offering another data point.)
- Aloha 14y ago
  Nice to meet a coincidental fellow traveler so to speak.

by Aloha 14y ago

gph 14y ago

> its statistically less likely to die from terrorism then it is from a normal plane crash, consider that. From a purely passenger point of view this might be true, but if you include the total deaths from WTC/Pentagon I bet it comes out in a wash. Normal plane crashes do not occur that frequently in the US, I doubt the total deaths from commercial flights is much higher than ~3000

MaysonL 14y ago
Essentially, on 9/11, the US total death rate doubled for a day. From a statistical point of view, a minor blip.
- refurb 14y ago
  I'm going to assume the US daily death rate is a pretty constant number. You wouldn't consider the doubling of it to be more than a statistical blip?
  - aurelianito 14y ago
    I would just consider it an outlier and don't fret too much about it if went down to the usual level the next day.
dalke 14y ago
Depending on the window that you use, you've lost that bet. Using the numbers from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accidents_and_incidents_involving_airliners_in_the_United_States http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accidents_and_incidents... and including the fatalities on the ground: 985 fatalities in the 1980s, 1277 in the 1990s, and (excluding 9/11) 512 in the 2000s. This adds up to 2774. I started to include the pre-1980 numbers, but it became too tedious. From what I got so far, there have been 3606 commercial aviation related fatalities since 1970, and over 4656 fatalities total in US-located commercial aviation history. Pan Am Flight 830 had 1 fatality due to a terrorist bomb, which I put in the non-9/11 column. I put EgyptAir Flight 990 as a suicide+murder (or accident) and not due to terrorism. However, this excludes accidents from US carriers not in the US (Pan Am 1736 in Tenerife; 583 fatalities in 1977), and includes accidents from non-US carriers which took place in the US (Air Canada 797; 23 fatalities in 1983). I did it this way because you qualified it as "in the US." Just under 3,000 fatalities occurred due to 9/11. The full statistical analysis would decrease the chance of death slightly to remove the 19 hijackers and observe that the same person could not be on all flights at the same time, reducing the count by about 150. These minor details don't affect the overall analysis. The worldwide numbers are listed at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_accidents_and_incidents http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_accidents_and_incident... . From 2002 to 2011 there were 11,068 aviation fatalities. This likely includes fatalities on the ground because it lists 4,140 fatalities for all of 2001, which is about 3000+(11068/10). I don't know how many of those other fatalities are due to terrorism. Worldwide then, if you pick any period of three or more years, you are more likely to die by a plane accident than by terrorist attack. In the US, if you look at the last 40 years of flights, you are still more likely to die by accident than by terrorist attack. For the usual sense of scale for these matters, there were 32,367 automobile deaths in the US in 2011, or 1.10 deaths per 100 million vehicle miles traveled. Airlines have about 1 death for each 2,000 million miles traveled. (Neither of these statistics include non-traveler fatalities.)
- Aloha 14y ago
  I was looking at the 10 years from 9/11, when I made the statement.
  - 14y ago

pasbesoin 14y ago

Aside from all the rest (not to discount it), stories such as this lead me to believe that the government and the TSA are lying to the public. I'm not content to live in a society where the government persistently lies to me and insists upon ruling with "secret" laws and policies. Aside from the emotional impact, such an asymmetry of information does not foster a democratic process.

Aloha 14y ago
I think it could be as something as a keyword match, and its either my middle name, or the fact that I have such a common first and last name that matches me to someone, somewhere who may or may not have done something, at some point in time.
- rthomas6 14y ago
  It's probably the second one. My little brother used to be on some sort of list that caused us some problems, and he has a very generic American name. This was when he was ~12.

abecedarius 14y ago

I'm a white American with a Persian first name, and while I don't get the 'random' pull-out every time, it's quite often. (Maybe a third of the time? Just offering another data point.)

Aloha 14y ago
Nice to meet a coincidental fellow traveler so to speak.