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It will be a very long time until computer automation can replaced knowledge workers. That is true but I think it's not an interesting question to ask. The in

by moe 14y ago

It will be a very long time until computer automation can replaced knowledge workers. That is true but I think it's not an interesting question to ask. The interesting question is what we are going to do about the rapidly growing unemployment of the unskilled workforce. Case in point: This will jump to a whole new level when self-driving cars become cost efficient - which seems rather likely to happen within the next 30 years. Automation in other sectors is not standing still either. "Educate them all" is not a solution. DHL and FedEx just don't need as many knowledge workers as they need truck drivers today.

JulianMorrison 14y ago
Also, automation right now is bidding against the humans for their jobs. As the minimum cost for automation falls, it keeps wages from rising, then drives them down, then when they reach the inelastic point, replaces the humans. So it's not just that this stuff will chuck a great many people out of work with nowhere to go, but that it will drive them to the breadline first. To fix this, the basic assumption "you work for a living" has to be torn up. The work ethic has to end.
gaius 14y ago
I am pretty skeptical about self-driving cars, for the simple reason that we don't even have self-driving trains yet, outside relatively small systems like the DLR, Heathrow Pod, etc, and it would seem to be that the job of driving a train (no steering, no collision avoidance, predetermined stops, etc) would be 100x easier.
- moe 14y ago
  There are actually quite a few driverless trains already[1] and Google's demonstrations of their driverless car are getting increasingly[2] impressive[3]. The question is really only when the transition to driverless cars will happen - we're long past the if. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_driverless_trains http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_driverless_trains [2] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRIOE1IZrq4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRIOE1IZrq4 [3] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdgQpa1pUUE http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdgQpa1pUUE

by moe 14y ago

JulianMorrison 14y ago

Also, automation right now is bidding against the humans for their jobs. As the minimum cost for automation falls, it keeps wages from rising, then drives them down, then when they reach the inelastic point, replaces the humans. So it's not just that this stuff will chuck a great many people out of work with nowhere to go, but that it will drive them to the breadline first. To fix this, the basic assumption "you work for a living" has to be torn up. The work ethic has to end.

gaius 14y ago

I am pretty skeptical about self-driving cars, for the simple reason that we don't even have self-driving trains yet, outside relatively small systems like the DLR, Heathrow Pod, etc, and it would seem to be that the job of driving a train (no steering, no collision avoidance, predetermined stops, etc) would be 100x easier.

moe 14y ago
There are actually quite a few driverless trains already[1] and Google's demonstrations of their driverless car are getting increasingly[2] impressive[3]. The question is really only when the transition to driverless cars will happen - we're long past the if. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_driverless_trains http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_driverless_trains [2] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRIOE1IZrq4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRIOE1IZrq4 [3] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdgQpa1pUUE http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdgQpa1pUUE