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To everybody, I highly recommend reading Nassim Taleb's book “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable”, which can be summarised (poorly) like this:
by anonymous 14y ago
To everybody, I highly recommend reading Nassim Taleb's book “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable”, which can be summarised (poorly) like this:
1) Things are more unpredictably random than you think
2) Yes, even if you're aware of 1)
- nandemo 14y agoI second the recommendation. I'd say a better summary has to mention that there 2 types of random "things": some are predictably random (Mediocristan), and some are aren't, they're prone to Black Swans (Extremistan). It's the latter type of randomness that we have to worry about: avoid being exposed to bad black swans (e.g. don't put all your money in the stock market), and try to be exposed to good black swans, but don't depend on it.