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Not really. I'm talking to you because I'm a middle-class male, who studies technology/science in the year 2013. That's pretty lucky. Does that make want to g

Not really. I'm talking to you because I'm a middle-class male, who studies technology/science in the year 2013. That's pretty lucky. Does that make want to give up - throw my hands up in the air and say - What will be will be? Hell no. I merely appreciate the gifts I've been given. I try not to attribute any success to my own hard work and study, and I try to do the best with what I have got. Knowing that my existence is particularly random/arbitrary doesn't really change what I do. It merely changes how I see the world around me. Same way I view the universe really. Its existence is fairly random. There really isn't really any point to it. It'll eventually die, and so will everyone else I know. Does that make me say - What's the point - nothing matters? Not really. It makes me cherish everything I've been given (life/liberty/health), it emboldens me to enjoy the little life that I have been given. Life is pretty amazing. It's also pretty random. I revel in the arbitrariness of it all while I can.

jacques_chester 14y ago
Like I say: it's a useful untruth. The reaction varies from person to person. And some of it is I think evolved. Optimism is the grease that oils capitalism, probably because optimistic ancestors took risks that in some cases paid off. Sure, most optimists failed horribly. But the payoffs for the lucky ones were sufficiently high to offset the cost. Thus optimism can become a dominant strategy. (I'm spitballing; the problem with evopsych is that it's all smart-sounding just-so stories that can't be tested). I mean I'm in the same boat. I'm working on a product which is specifically connected to questions of luck, risk, variance, human bias and so forth. If I am honest with myself the base rate / reference class forecast is that I will probably fail horribly. The rational thing to do would be to present my credentials at a big company. And yet ...

jacques_chester 14y ago

Like I say: it's a useful untruth. The reaction varies from person to person. And some of it is I think evolved. Optimism is the grease that oils capitalism, probably because optimistic ancestors took risks that in some cases paid off. Sure, most optimists failed horribly. But the payoffs for the lucky ones were sufficiently high to offset the cost. Thus optimism can become a dominant strategy. (I'm spitballing; the problem with evopsych is that it's all smart-sounding just-so stories that can't be tested). I mean I'm in the same boat. I'm working on a product which is specifically connected to questions of luck, risk, variance, human bias and so forth. If I am honest with myself the base rate / reference class forecast is that I will probably fail horribly. The rational thing to do would be to present my credentials at a big company. And yet ...