This reminds me of Peter Thiel's lecture on the question of luck.[1] A focus and care for topics like what this article discusses often falls into the optimist

This reminds me of Peter Thiel's lecture on the question of luck.[1] A focus and care for topics like what this article discusses often falls into the optimistic indeterminism quadrant that he outlines -- ie. we're optimistic about a future that we find largely out of our control, ie. is approaching fairly randomly but we feel good about it. The worry he outlines is that we may be at risk of falling into "pessimistic indeterminism", where Japan has existed for some time and much of Europe, ie. we don't feel good about a future we can't control. I agree that yes many things are indeterminate, and perhaps I can use this knowledge and attempt to take actions to mitigate the bad-unknowns, and not get too angry if things don't always work out, however beyond this what are the lessons to be learned here? I always fear that confirmation bias will take root and a common reaction to articles like this become, "oh, they were just lucky, so my current course [probably of inaction] could also lead to similar success given random chance..." No, that's not what it's saying. Perhaps I'm a deterministic pessimist? [1] http://blakemasters.com/post/23435743973/peter-thiels-cs183-startup-class-13-notes-essay http://blakemasters.com/post/23435743973/peter-thiels-cs183-...