4 ms·

Sorry, Malcolm Gladwell: NYC’s Drop in Crime Not Due to Broken Window Theory

4 points by jamesbritt 14y ago

lutusp 14y ago
A quote: "He added that he has no idea why the crime dropped—only that it had nothing to do with broken windows." One theory -- and it's only a theory -- is that the increased availability of birth control methods resulted in fewer unwanted children, which in turn produced fewer criminals: http://www.freakonomics.com/2005/05/15/abortion-and-crime-who-should-you-believe/ http://www.freakonomics.com/2005/05/15/abortion-and-crime-wh... Obviously this isn't science (no meaningful controls), and it could be a meaningless correlation between two unrelated things. But it's disingenuous for the author to say he has "no idea" why the crime rate dropped.
- InclinedPlane 14y ago
  This is yet more junk science by the same (correction, a different) author. There's no meaningful correlation, at best there's a sort of coincidental timing relation, but once you dig deeper you find it doesn't actually make any sense. The almost certain cause of the crime reduction is the crack epidemic. It first caused a massive boom in violent crime then it leveled out to a bit lower than previous levels. This could be because communities finally got tired of gang violence, or it could be that gangs had simply finished consolidating their territory and then the reduction in crack use reduced revenues and reduced incentives for new gang violence. Also, the economy improved, which tends to reduce crime rates. If you look at the data you see that it wasn't just homicide counts that spiked, the crime rate per capita for different age groups went up then down in the critical teen to mid-20s demographic. That has nothing to do with abortion rates whatsoever. Edit: Look at this graph and tell me where the abortion rate kicks in? http://www.justice.gov/archive/mps/strategic2000_2005/oage.gif http://www.justice.gov/archive/mps/strategic2000_2005/oage.g... How is it that the impact of abortion on birth rate kicks in simultaneously for people 30, 20, and 15 years old? Also, apologies for the authorship confusion on my part. I have actually read both books, and while occasionally quite interesting both do suffer from being extremely intellectually shallow, which might explain my mistake.
  - tadfisher 14y ago
    Yet another statistical correlation is the removal of lead from the environment, mostly from paint and gasoline: http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/01/lead-crime-link-gasoline http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/01/lead-crime-li...
  - snowwrestler 14y ago
    Not the same author. Freakonomics is written by Steven Leavitt, an economist, and Stephen Dubner, a writer. Malcolm Gladwell wrote The Tipping Point.
  - nessus42 14y ago
    Levitt addressed your argument all the way back in 2005: http://www.freakonomics.com/2005/05/15/abortion-and-crime-who-should-you-believe/ http://www.freakonomics.com/2005/05/15/abortion-and-crime-wh...

4 points by jamesbritt 14y ago

A quote: "He added that he has no idea why the crime dropped—only that it had nothing to do with broken windows." One theory -- and it's only a theory -- is that the increased availability of birth control methods resulted in fewer unwanted children, which in turn produced fewer criminals: http://www.freakonomics.com/2005/05/15/abortion-and-crime-who-should-you-believe/ http://www.freakonomics.com/2005/05/15/abortion-and-crime-wh... Obviously this isn't science (no meaningful controls), and it could be a meaningless correlation between two unrelated things. But it's disingenuous for the author to say he has "no idea" why the crime rate dropped.

InclinedPlane 14y ago
This is yet more junk science by the same (correction, a different) author. There's no meaningful correlation, at best there's a sort of coincidental timing relation, but once you dig deeper you find it doesn't actually make any sense. The almost certain cause of the crime reduction is the crack epidemic. It first caused a massive boom in violent crime then it leveled out to a bit lower than previous levels. This could be because communities finally got tired of gang violence, or it could be that gangs had simply finished consolidating their territory and then the reduction in crack use reduced revenues and reduced incentives for new gang violence. Also, the economy improved, which tends to reduce crime rates. If you look at the data you see that it wasn't just homicide counts that spiked, the crime rate per capita for different age groups went up then down in the critical teen to mid-20s demographic. That has nothing to do with abortion rates whatsoever. Edit: Look at this graph and tell me where the abortion rate kicks in? http://www.justice.gov/archive/mps/strategic2000_2005/oage.gif http://www.justice.gov/archive/mps/strategic2000_2005/oage.g... How is it that the impact of abortion on birth rate kicks in simultaneously for people 30, 20, and 15 years old? Also, apologies for the authorship confusion on my part. I have actually read both books, and while occasionally quite interesting both do suffer from being extremely intellectually shallow, which might explain my mistake.
- tadfisher 14y ago
  Yet another statistical correlation is the removal of lead from the environment, mostly from paint and gasoline: http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/01/lead-crime-link-gasoline http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/01/lead-crime-li...
- snowwrestler 14y ago
  Not the same author. Freakonomics is written by Steven Leavitt, an economist, and Stephen Dubner, a writer. Malcolm Gladwell wrote The Tipping Point.
- nessus42 14y ago
  Levitt addressed your argument all the way back in 2005: http://www.freakonomics.com/2005/05/15/abortion-and-crime-who-should-you-believe/ http://www.freakonomics.com/2005/05/15/abortion-and-crime-wh...