The current pricing for the different size batteries that Tesla offers implies a cost of ~$500 per kWh (the cost differential between the 40 kWh, 60 kWh and 85

The current pricing for the different size batteries that Tesla offers implies a cost of ~$500 per kWh (the cost differential between the 40 kWh, 60 kWh and 85 kWh packs is $10k). I read "somewhere" (random stranger on the Internet alert) that the cost of raw materials is in the ballpark of $80 per kWh. Now, I'd think that the current scale of battery production (certainly at least millions of units in the 18650 form factor that Tesla uses) doesn't leave much room to handwave the magic "scale effect" wand. On the other hand, it does seem like there is quite a bit of headroom between $80 (if that is realistic) and $500. If a large chunk of the delivered cost of a battery is attributable to fixed costs, like R&D, rather than the process of turning the raw materials into a finished battery, then maybe it isn't too implausible that the price could drop by a factor of two (or four). You might be able to glean some that information about that from carefully reading the SEC reports from public battery manufacturers.