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> while solar is ridiculously expensive without any clear prospect of becoming cheaper This is different from the impression I previously had, which was more a

• pekk 14y ago
  Tons of effort has gone into PV cells for decades (they were being manufactured in quantity in the 70s). They are our dearest hope for renewable energy at scale. And they are still more expensive than any other source of electricity we actually use by such an embarrassing margin that even really impressive cost improvements will still leave them pretty much non-competitive (making steam is a little better). Recent price drops due to subsidies are not going to be sustainable unless the industry is weaned off the subsidies. Most of the reduction in that Economist graph is after Obama takes office, before that the changes are not all that dramatic to really support a comparison to Moore's law (which has itself shown pretty flawed as a way of predicting the computing future). So I just don't see any substantive, fundamental reason (i.e.: clear prospect) to suppose that solar generation will get so much cheaper that it will reach striking distance of natural gas, of which we have quite a supply. But I'm not saying it's impossible to have another opinion.
  • aidenn0 14y ago
    Meh, it's really more tons of research when into PVs in the 70s and then around 84 oil prices dropped and everyone forgot about them for 20 years.