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How feasible is it for them to eventually reach sub-$20k pricing, given the significant cost of the batteries?

• lutusp 14y ago
  This will only happen if battery technology improves -- see my other post.
• stephengillie 14y ago
  How much will the cost of these batteries go down as more and more cars need them?
  • jessriedel 14y ago
    With current battery tech, not much at all.
  • bathat 14y ago
    The current pricing for the different size batteries that Tesla offers implies a cost of ~$500 per kWh (the cost differential between the 40 kWh, 60 kWh and 85 kWh packs is $10k). I read "somewhere" (random stranger on the Internet alert) that the cost of raw materials is in the ballpark of $80 per kWh. Now, I'd think that the current scale of battery production (certainly at least millions of units in the 18650 form factor that Tesla uses) doesn't leave much room to handwave the magic "scale effect" wand. On the other hand, it does seem like there is quite a bit of headroom between $80 (if that is realistic) and $500. If a large chunk of the delivered cost of a battery is attributable to fixed costs, like R&D, rather than the process of turning the raw materials into a finished battery, then maybe it isn't too implausible that the price could drop by a factor of two (or four). You might be able to glean some that information about that from carefully reading the SEC reports from public battery manufacturers.
    • guy_c 14y ago
      I seem to remember in an interview with Elon, that he quoted the current raw material cost per kWh. I think it was quite low, and that suggests good potential reductions in $/kWh. I'll try to find the interview