great post, but the math at the end is illogical. when you join a startup, the mean/average/net/etc all don't matter, as you aren't joining "all startups". so

great post, but the math at the end is illogical. when you join a startup, the mean/average/net/etc all don't matter, as you aren't joining "all startups". so realistically, the 0.5% of $100M exit is worth $500K, period (though yes, divided up over four years). THEN, you adjust the above based on your own odds of the company winning. if you think you have an 80% shot, then you are playing for $400K. if you think its a 20% shot, its $100K. etc. FURTHER, you really should go back into the space and look at what the exits there are like. does that industry see a lot of quick $20-$40M flips? does it see infrequent, but not impossible $500M exits? or is it mostly just acquihires? having worked at/joined/founded 4 startups (plus a half-dozen side projects), i can say they are all different, and each exits radically differently...