4 ms·

Does it sound by my post that I am ignorant of these "multiple" reconstructions? They all use the same proxies and similar techniques, Esper, Briffa, bristle c

by gd1 14y ago

Does it sound by my post that I am ignorant of these "multiple" reconstructions? They all use the same proxies and similar techniques, Esper, Briffa, bristle cones, etc. I have read a good number of them. They are all awful. Paleoclimatology isn't any worse than some other soft sciences I guess - the difference is that there isn't so much riding on them being right.

scarmig 14y ago
For the interested, check out Wahl and Ammann 2007 that addresses the simplistic criticism that gd1 offers.
- eqreqeq 14y ago
  Thanks. It would definitely have been better for those listening to this discussion to hear your counterpoints rather than me having to go look it up in a sea of words. Especially since I'm not really interested in the field. Also, you called his criticism simplistic without explaining why. Not very good manners.
- kevinskii 14y ago
  Wahl and Ammann 2007 does not appear to adequately address gd1's points. It just applies a slightly different statistical approach using the same flawed premise. There are countless arguments and rebuttals to be found on both sides of the debate, but I've found the ones below to be particularly helpful: Pro Hockey Stick: [1] Original MBH98 paper (PDF): http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/MannBradleyHughes1998.pdf http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers... [2] Wahl and Ammann 2007 (PDF): http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/ammann/millennium/refs/Wahl_ClimChange2007.pdf http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/ammann/millennium/refs/Wahl_Clim... [3] Wikipedia article: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hockey_stick_controversy http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hockey_stick_controversy [4] Real Climate Hockey Stick "Dummies Guide" (PDF): http://www.realclimate.org/dummies.pdf http://www.realclimate.org/dummies.pdf Skeptical of Hockey Stick: [5] Skeptic blog post "Casper and the Jesus Paper": http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2008/8/11/caspar-and-the-jesus-paper.html http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2008/8/11/caspar-and-... [6] "The Hockey Stick Illusions" book (same skeptic author): http://www.amazon.com/The-Hockey-Stick-Illusion-Climategate/dp/1906768358/ref=cm_cr_pr_product_top http://www.amazon.com/The-Hockey-Stick-Illusion-Climategate/... [7] McIntyre & McKitrick 2003 (PDF): http://climateaudit.files.wordpress.com/2005/09/mcintyre.mckitrick.2003.pdf http://climateaudit.files.wordpress.com/2005/09/mcintyre.mck...

by gd1 14y ago

scarmig 14y ago

For the interested, check out Wahl and Ammann 2007 that addresses the simplistic criticism that gd1 offers.

eqreqeq 14y ago
Thanks. It would definitely have been better for those listening to this discussion to hear your counterpoints rather than me having to go look it up in a sea of words. Especially since I'm not really interested in the field. Also, you called his criticism simplistic without explaining why. Not very good manners.
kevinskii 14y ago
Wahl and Ammann 2007 does not appear to adequately address gd1's points. It just applies a slightly different statistical approach using the same flawed premise. There are countless arguments and rebuttals to be found on both sides of the debate, but I've found the ones below to be particularly helpful: Pro Hockey Stick: [1] Original MBH98 paper (PDF): http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/MannBradleyHughes1998.pdf http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers... [2] Wahl and Ammann 2007 (PDF): http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/ammann/millennium/refs/Wahl_ClimChange2007.pdf http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/ammann/millennium/refs/Wahl_Clim... [3] Wikipedia article: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hockey_stick_controversy http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hockey_stick_controversy [4] Real Climate Hockey Stick "Dummies Guide" (PDF): http://www.realclimate.org/dummies.pdf http://www.realclimate.org/dummies.pdf Skeptical of Hockey Stick: [5] Skeptic blog post "Casper and the Jesus Paper": http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2008/8/11/caspar-and-the-jesus-paper.html http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2008/8/11/caspar-and-... [6] "The Hockey Stick Illusions" book (same skeptic author): http://www.amazon.com/The-Hockey-Stick-Illusion-Climategate/dp/1906768358/ref=cm_cr_pr_product_top http://www.amazon.com/The-Hockey-Stick-Illusion-Climategate/... [7] McIntyre & McKitrick 2003 (PDF): http://climateaudit.files.wordpress.com/2005/09/mcintyre.mckitrick.2003.pdf http://climateaudit.files.wordpress.com/2005/09/mcintyre.mck...