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I can't speak for VMG, but: Assume you buy that human emissions are driving enough of climate change that if we removed that driver things would stay "cool eno
by twoodfin 14y ago
I can't speak for VMG, but:
Assume you buy that human emissions are driving enough of climate change that if we removed that driver things would stay "cool enough". China has already markedly surpassed the U.S. as the largest total CO2 emitter, and they're not even close to the U.S.'s per capita emissions. Even if they can manage to continue to industrialize while only emitting per capita as much as the nuclear-heavy French, you're still looking at an increase of 15-20%, and I think that's optimistic. AFAIK, the Chinese are building coal fired power plants as fast as they can.
And that's just China. India and Africa would like to enjoy a Western quality of life as well.
I am extremely skeptical that CO2 emissions can be substantially curtailed, short of a world economic collapse that would make 2007-2009 look like a walk in the park.
But I am more than willing to be convinced. I think it would help the alarmed AGW folks immensely if they would unify around a politically impractical "if we ruled the world" plan. One sufficiently detailed that it could be analyzed for its climatic, economic and social effects, as well as publicized, criticized and modified until it becomes practical. A starting point might be, "Tax fossil fuel extraction at the source at levels sufficient to reduce emissions the necessary N%". But then you have to figure out what to do about the facts that this sort of plan would likely never be accepted by Russia or China, and that it's a massively regressive tax on the world's poor. There are solutions to these issues. Figure them out, add them to the plan, lather, rinse, repeat. If something like this already exists, I haven't seen it.
- bwhite 14y agoYou can push the argument further. Postulate that climate change is real, and that you could accurately describe the policy steps necessary to eliminate it, and that you could bring about those policy changes on a global scale. What are the negative impacts? What is the chance of climate change occurring anyway? Anthropogenic change is peanuts compared a huge mess of Siberian volcanoes firing off for a million years.
- greggman 14y agoThe problem won't be solved by legislation or taxes. It will only be solved by "desirable" tech. The Tesla Model S is but one example, it's as stylish as a BMW and faster than most other cars in it's class. The majority of the people in the same market segment would love a Tesla. Bring something similar to the low-end market. Bring it at a competitive price. Make it more desirable than the existing stuff and people will switch because they desire it. Not because some law says they have to. Do the same for everything else. Invent better cheaper and more eco friendly housing, energy, food production, transportation. Like the Tesla it must be more desirable and better in nearly every way then its competition. IMO that's the only way forward. As you pointed out there's no way to get the entire world to follow some eco laws. Especially when most of the world is wants a better quality of life. If we give them that quality of life or better but with affordable and better eco-tech / eco-design we'll solve the problems.