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@josteink you have any stats that back up your assertion that iOS is headed "soon into sub 10% marketshare"? I didn't think so. Anyway, I think the market is

@josteink you have any stats that back up your assertion that iOS is headed "soon into sub 10% marketshare"? I didn't think so. Anyway, I think the market is convinced Apple can't grow earnings much any more. And the market is probably right. Law of large numbers has taken effect. But this notion that iOS is getting crushed and is headed into oblivion is a product of the simplistic "winner take all" mentality. Just because it happened with Windows doesn't mean it happens with mobile - or anything else for that matter.

alaskamiller 14y ago
You both are looking at the problem wrong. The problem isn't decline. Big corporations benefit from inertia before they see real decline. The problem is that a competitor grows and expands the pie faster and bigger than your slice.
josteink 14y ago
> @josteink you have any stats that back up your assertion that iOS is headed "soon into sub 10% marketshare"? Basic extrapolation. You can take the platforms' relative market-share and see if you spot the trend. Apple's worldwide market-share has plunged from 50% to 14% in just a couple of years [1]. Android's intake on the market has been so aggressive even Apple is having a hard time keeping up. Now, to be fair, these numbers are for smart-phones only and not for tablets, so the numbers dont represent the full truth. Right now Apple is definitely leading in tablet-space. But that was also the story for iPhone vs Android-phones a few years back. Android-phones were considered sub-par and iPhones the best of breed. Where are we now though? Apple is considered the laggard and have to keep up with the constant stream of new and better equipped Android phones. I suspect we we will see the same in tablet-space: After Apple has had the lead for a few years, it will see it's market getting eaten by Android and Apple will have to start playing the game of catch-up once again. Like they've already done with the iPad Mini. It looks like history is repeating itself. And from these trends, estimating a future sub-10% market-share doesn't seem all that crazy. [1] http://techcrunch.com/2012/11/02/idc-android-market-share-reached-75-worldwide-in-q3-2012/ http://techcrunch.com/2012/11/02/idc-android-market-share-re...

alaskamiller 14y ago

You both are looking at the problem wrong. The problem isn't decline. Big corporations benefit from inertia before they see real decline. The problem is that a competitor grows and expands the pie faster and bigger than your slice.

josteink 14y ago

> @josteink you have any stats that back up your assertion that iOS is headed "soon into sub 10% marketshare"? Basic extrapolation. You can take the platforms' relative market-share and see if you spot the trend. Apple's worldwide market-share has plunged from 50% to 14% in just a couple of years [1]. Android's intake on the market has been so aggressive even Apple is having a hard time keeping up. Now, to be fair, these numbers are for smart-phones only and not for tablets, so the numbers dont represent the full truth. Right now Apple is definitely leading in tablet-space. But that was also the story for iPhone vs Android-phones a few years back. Android-phones were considered sub-par and iPhones the best of breed. Where are we now though? Apple is considered the laggard and have to keep up with the constant stream of new and better equipped Android phones. I suspect we we will see the same in tablet-space: After Apple has had the lead for a few years, it will see it's market getting eaten by Android and Apple will have to start playing the game of catch-up once again. Like they've already done with the iPad Mini. It looks like history is repeating itself. And from these trends, estimating a future sub-10% market-share doesn't seem all that crazy. [1] http://techcrunch.com/2012/11/02/idc-android-market-share-reached-75-worldwide-in-q3-2012/ http://techcrunch.com/2012/11/02/idc-android-market-share-re...