I disagree. There are two main economic reasons to own stock: to earn dividend, or to sell the stock later at a higher price. In Amazon's case, they make almost

I disagree. There are two main economic reasons to own stock: to earn dividend, or to sell the stock later at a higher price. In Amazon's case, they make almost no profits, so only the second reason applies. Then, what you're really predicting is not how strong Amazon's position is going to be in the future, but how strong other investors are going to think it is: a subtle but important difference. But what is the endgame? Amazon's business can still grow a lot, but it cannot grow forever. At some point, the growth will be too slow for the crowd that wants to flip stocks fast. The stock is going to end up in the hands of people who want to hold it long-term: the question is whether they will hold it willingly or not. To make it worth it to them, Amazon will have to crank up its profit margin, taking advantage of the near-monopoly position it will have reached by previously undercutting all competition. If it does not, then there will be no reason to hold the stock, and the people stuck with it are going to try to sell lower and lower to recoup part of their investment. In other words, as far as I can see, there are two possible long-term plans for Amazon from the investor's point of view: A) "cornering the market" on online sales, and then jacking up margins to squeeze gold out of it; B) a multi-level marketing game which inevitably ends with the bubble bursting and less-savvy people getting hurt. I think that rather than the price of Amazon's stock, it would be far more interesting to know who is holding it. If it's savvy investors, we're either in A or in the growth part of B. When retail investors, pension funds and the like start growing, it means we're in B, and nearing the burst phase.