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"There is a common story that airline ticket prices rise significantly if you buy them less than two weeks before departure. And that any time before that will

by voyou 14y ago

"There is a common story that airline ticket prices rise significantly if you buy them less than two weeks before departure. And that any time before that will yield standard prices." Is that a "common story"? Because IME it's not true at all. Prices seem to rise fairly steadily from at least a couple of months before travel.

jakub_g 14y ago
That all depends on a really lots of factors IMO, most notably: continent, the number of airlines competing on a given route, is it a high peak time (e.g. vacations, xmas, May period in some European countries when there are lots of possible "long weekends" due to national holidays). In my experience on the route I'm flying (indirect European connection, only two airlines competing, not many connections each day), the price in time is growing kind of exponentially. The threshold for sudden change is about 2 months (i.e. the price difference between 2 and 4 months in advance is not huge, while 2 and 1 month it's bigger). Moreover buying ~10 months in advance is more expensive than say 3 months before.
- OSButler 14y ago
  My experience is the opposite, where booking way in advance will give you often the best deal, if you are using their special offers. Most airlines have those special offers, where you can book a cheap flight within a specific date range for a huge discount. I've been doing this for all the "big" holidays and usually ended up with a price that got me the second ticket almost for free, when compared to the normal flight prices. However, this means you are planning the trip based on your flight dates and not the other way around, which of course doesn't work for almost all non-holiday trips.
  - secabeen 14y ago
    Most customers who book way in advance are in one of two classes: really price-sensitive, or really time-sensitive. The airlines try to figure out which you are through the special offers. As such, they'll set the base rate higher than the 3-month out rate to catch some extra revenue from the time-sensitive people, and then have "special offers" to induce the price-sensitive people to book.
jessriedel 14y ago
I think it is the conventional wisdom, which is a statement about people rather than reality. It's evidenced by the fact that I've heard it stated almost verbatim by at least two unrelated people. What they both had in common is that they were older and had never used Kayak.
- techsupporter 14y ago
  Most fare classes that carry the cheapest fares require a minimum 14- or 21-day pre-purchase window. This kind of thinking is probably a legacy of many people calling travel agents--or the airline--and hearing those rules over a long period of time. The rules still exist but demand and technology are such that they're not all that important any more because the tickets will be sold or reclassified several times prior to the flight.

by voyou 14y ago

jakub_g 14y ago

That all depends on a really lots of factors IMO, most notably: continent, the number of airlines competing on a given route, is it a high peak time (e.g. vacations, xmas, May period in some European countries when there are lots of possible "long weekends" due to national holidays). In my experience on the route I'm flying (indirect European connection, only two airlines competing, not many connections each day), the price in time is growing kind of exponentially. The threshold for sudden change is about 2 months (i.e. the price difference between 2 and 4 months in advance is not huge, while 2 and 1 month it's bigger). Moreover buying ~10 months in advance is more expensive than say 3 months before.

OSButler 14y ago
My experience is the opposite, where booking way in advance will give you often the best deal, if you are using their special offers. Most airlines have those special offers, where you can book a cheap flight within a specific date range for a huge discount. I've been doing this for all the "big" holidays and usually ended up with a price that got me the second ticket almost for free, when compared to the normal flight prices. However, this means you are planning the trip based on your flight dates and not the other way around, which of course doesn't work for almost all non-holiday trips.
- secabeen 14y ago
  Most customers who book way in advance are in one of two classes: really price-sensitive, or really time-sensitive. The airlines try to figure out which you are through the special offers. As such, they'll set the base rate higher than the 3-month out rate to catch some extra revenue from the time-sensitive people, and then have "special offers" to induce the price-sensitive people to book.

jessriedel 14y ago

I think it is the conventional wisdom, which is a statement about people rather than reality. It's evidenced by the fact that I've heard it stated almost verbatim by at least two unrelated people. What they both had in common is that they were older and had never used Kayak.

techsupporter 14y ago
Most fare classes that carry the cheapest fares require a minimum 14- or 21-day pre-purchase window. This kind of thinking is probably a legacy of many people calling travel agents--or the airline--and hearing those rules over a long period of time. The rules still exist but demand and technology are such that they're not all that important any more because the tickets will be sold or reclassified several times prior to the flight.