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I'm old, and I have seen predictions come and go over the years, but this is my prediction about Facebook, and I'm sticking to it: "Facebook will go the way of

I'm old, and I have seen predictions come and go over the years, but this is my prediction about Facebook, and I'm sticking to it: "Facebook will go the way of AOL, still being a factor in the industry years from now, but also serving as an example of a company that could never monetize up to the level of the hype surrounding it." If I had serious money, and if I thought that the time frame fits the Long Bets website http://longbets.org/ http://longbets.org/ time frames, I would put up this prediction (tightened up for specificity) there. But I actually think that Facebook fulfilling this prediction will be on as short a time frame as AOL's eventual collapse into irrelevance. AFTER EDIT: A kind and thoughtful reply wrote, Facebook has way better engineers than AOL did, though, and an extremely engineering-oriented culture. That could be a strength, as you claim, but it could also be a weakness. A great many of my friends and one of my children are strong programmers, and some of those people have strong social skills too. But I would suggest that while Facebook beat MySpace early on by imposing a "house style" on each page, so that the users couldn't make their own pages off-puttingly ugly, Facebook has also muffed more than once meeting user expectations of how their social interactions will proceed in Facebook's mechanized environment, because Facebook engineers thought like engineers rather than like people building social networks. Facebook is not off-putting to me: I use it even way more than I use Hacker News. But I can't figure out any sound way for Facebook to monetize that will not become off-putting, and user exodus can happen very fast once people feel put off enough to leave. I will follow my friends where they go, even if I have both trust and like for Facebook myself.

simonh 14y ago
before the IPO I'd have said that if Amazon can stay in business for 17 years on minuscule earnings, I suspect Facebook can too. All it has to do is stay relevant and popular and investors will stick with it due to it's 'long term potential', in Amazon's case apparently for ever. The problem for Facebook is their IPO was a mess for investors, so they're perceived as being lot less shiny than they were. But still, once you reach the point of ubiquitous name recognition that gives you a lot of protection. E.g. apparently Bing is just as good as Google these days. I wouldn't know, I just use Google. For me to change they'd have to be very clearly superior, and for ordinary people to switch they'd have to be even better than that. All Facebook has to do at this stage is to stay at least as useful and relevant as they are now, and they will retain a mass audience. If they keep the audience they'll keep the investors. Making money isn't sexy, it's market share and that pot of gold just round the corner that pulls investors in.
- minwcnt5 14y ago
  "E.g. apparently Bing is just as good as Google these days." Well, when one of your "1000 ranking signals" amounts to "clicks on Google's search results", I would hope so. Of course, this just means they'll always be equal to Google - epsilon, even if Google's quality gets worse, and so like you say there will never be a compelling reason to switch.
  - mc32 14y ago
    That is such an old canard. Discussion from way back. http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2183480 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2183480
minwcnt5 14y ago
I think Facebook has way better engineers than AOL did, though, and an extremely engineering-oriented culture. The infrastructure they've built up already is also very valuable; only a small handful of companies can match them there. I think those two factors will be their saving grace. Even if FB as a social networking website never becomes highly profitable, their talent and infrastructure should let them easily pivot into other areas and remain relevant. I would never bet against a company that has a few thousand of the best engineers in the industry, and ambitious management.
- hkmurakami 14y ago
  Not just ambitious management, but ambitious management that is not afraid of ignoring the whims of Wall Street Analysts. I'll always be happy to back companies led by Wall Street defying, long term oriented founding CEOs: Costco, Amazon, Facebook, etc.
dobbsbob 14y ago
100% agree. Facebook is already dying a slow death. Everybody in my circle of friends, co-workers, professors, and girlfriends use twitter or just text each other, or keep open a Gtalk app.

simonh 14y ago

before the IPO I'd have said that if Amazon can stay in business for 17 years on minuscule earnings, I suspect Facebook can too. All it has to do is stay relevant and popular and investors will stick with it due to it's 'long term potential', in Amazon's case apparently for ever. The problem for Facebook is their IPO was a mess for investors, so they're perceived as being lot less shiny than they were. But still, once you reach the point of ubiquitous name recognition that gives you a lot of protection. E.g. apparently Bing is just as good as Google these days. I wouldn't know, I just use Google. For me to change they'd have to be very clearly superior, and for ordinary people to switch they'd have to be even better than that. All Facebook has to do at this stage is to stay at least as useful and relevant as they are now, and they will retain a mass audience. If they keep the audience they'll keep the investors. Making money isn't sexy, it's market share and that pot of gold just round the corner that pulls investors in.

minwcnt5 14y ago
"E.g. apparently Bing is just as good as Google these days." Well, when one of your "1000 ranking signals" amounts to "clicks on Google's search results", I would hope so. Of course, this just means they'll always be equal to Google - epsilon, even if Google's quality gets worse, and so like you say there will never be a compelling reason to switch.
- mc32 14y ago
  That is such an old canard. Discussion from way back. http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2183480 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2183480

minwcnt5 14y ago

I think Facebook has way better engineers than AOL did, though, and an extremely engineering-oriented culture. The infrastructure they've built up already is also very valuable; only a small handful of companies can match them there. I think those two factors will be their saving grace. Even if FB as a social networking website never becomes highly profitable, their talent and infrastructure should let them easily pivot into other areas and remain relevant. I would never bet against a company that has a few thousand of the best engineers in the industry, and ambitious management.

hkmurakami 14y ago
Not just ambitious management, but ambitious management that is not afraid of ignoring the whims of Wall Street Analysts. I'll always be happy to back companies led by Wall Street defying, long term oriented founding CEOs: Costco, Amazon, Facebook, etc.

dobbsbob 14y ago

100% agree. Facebook is already dying a slow death. Everybody in my circle of friends, co-workers, professors, and girlfriends use twitter or just text each other, or keep open a Gtalk app.