3 ms·
The other key thing is that the risk he mentioned was not specifically of dying, but of either death or being crippled. Both of those are very frightening prosp
by gknoy 14y ago
The other key thing is that the risk he mentioned was not specifically of dying, but of either death or being crippled. Both of those are very frightening prospects, and he simplifies it as "dying five times" when he does the calculation.
- yuliyp 14y agoExpected value gives you the "If I look at 5000 shower-takings with a 1/1000 probability of a shower-taking resulting in death, I expect to see 5 deaths on average". Of course when applying it to a single lifetime, the correct thing to consider is "If I take showers until I have taken 5000 showers or died, what is the expected number of shower-deaths I will incur", which is .9972.