3 ms·
I thought these two parts were the most interesting: "A clue to the underlying problem with the planning algorithm was uncovered by Newby-Clark et. al. (2000),
by fortes 18y ago
I thought these two parts were the most interesting:
"A clue to the underlying problem with the planning algorithm was uncovered by Newby-Clark et. al. (2000), who found that:
Asking subjects for their predictions based on realistic "best guess" scenarios; or
Asking subjects for their hoped-for "best case" scenarios...
...produced indistinguishable results."
and:
"So there is a fairly reliable way to fix the planning fallacy, if you're doing something broadly similar to a reference class of previous projects. Just ask how long similar projects have taken in the past, without considering any of the special properties of this project. Better yet, ask an experienced outsider how long similar projects have taken."