3 ms·

2-3 years seems to be SpaceX's preferred timeline (and they've hit most of them so far)

jlgreco 14y ago
Yeah, that seems to be the case. Manned flight is a massive step forward though. It's not just a matter of making sure everything they have today works well enough if people are on board, they still have critical systems that they still have to develop first! They still need to finish, then test and certify those second generation draco thrusters that would be used as the launch-abort system for instance. The craziest part is that I think they can actually do it.
- lutorm 14y ago
  superdracos have been in testing for a while: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PUUnYgo1-lI http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PUUnYgo1-lI
  - jlgreco 14y ago
    Not actually in a Dragon capsule to my knowledge, though I admit I don't know how different that would be.
- marvin 14y ago
  It says in this article that they've already scheduled a launch abort test, which presumably involves a Dragon capsule with the SuperDraco escape thrusters. So things are going really fast. http://www.spacesafetymagazine.com/2013/01/22/nasa-passed-falcon-9-engines-failure-october/ http://www.spacesafetymagazine.com/2013/01/22/nasa-passed-fa... The Grasshopper experiments are also going along really well. I am shocked how quickly SpaceX is achieving milestones. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F75JMmFoEcE http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F75JMmFoEcE
maaku 14y ago
? They've actually missed almost all of their deadlines. 3-5 years is more realistic (if I were a betting man) based on past performance. But they've certainly hit all their milestones, eventually, which is much more than can be said for nearly every other private space venture.
- InclinedPlane 14y ago
  It can be said for nearly every other space venture, period.
  - maaku 14y ago
    I don't get it. Apollo did go to the moon six times, six months ahead of schedule.
- krie 14y ago
  Never is the most realistic deadline.
  - jlgreco 14y ago
    How do you figure? Were they willing to tolerate some risk, they could have done it successfully two years ago. The only thing standing in their way are the engineering challenges needed to reduce the risk to levels that they consider acceptable, and they seem to have a firm handle on what that entails and how to achieve it.

Yeah, that seems to be the case. Manned flight is a massive step forward though. It's not just a matter of making sure everything they have today works well enough if people are on board, they still have critical systems that they still have to develop first! They still need to finish, then test and certify those second generation draco thrusters that would be used as the launch-abort system for instance. The craziest part is that I think they can actually do it.

lutorm 14y ago
superdracos have been in testing for a while: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PUUnYgo1-lI http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PUUnYgo1-lI
- jlgreco 14y ago
  Not actually in a Dragon capsule to my knowledge, though I admit I don't know how different that would be.
marvin 14y ago
It says in this article that they've already scheduled a launch abort test, which presumably involves a Dragon capsule with the SuperDraco escape thrusters. So things are going really fast. http://www.spacesafetymagazine.com/2013/01/22/nasa-passed-falcon-9-engines-failure-october/ http://www.spacesafetymagazine.com/2013/01/22/nasa-passed-fa... The Grasshopper experiments are also going along really well. I am shocked how quickly SpaceX is achieving milestones. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F75JMmFoEcE http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F75JMmFoEcE

maaku 14y ago

? They've actually missed almost all of their deadlines. 3-5 years is more realistic (if I were a betting man) based on past performance. But they've certainly hit all their milestones, eventually, which is much more than can be said for nearly every other private space venture.

InclinedPlane 14y ago
It can be said for nearly every other space venture, period.
- maaku 14y ago
  I don't get it. Apollo did go to the moon six times, six months ahead of schedule.
krie 14y ago
Never is the most realistic deadline.
- jlgreco 14y ago
  How do you figure? Were they willing to tolerate some risk, they could have done it successfully two years ago. The only thing standing in their way are the engineering challenges needed to reduce the risk to levels that they consider acceptable, and they seem to have a firm handle on what that entails and how to achieve it.