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The next several years should prove "interesting" for the car market. Driverless cars and assorted state DOT departments pushing for black boxes in cars on the

The next several years should prove "interesting" for the car market. Driverless cars and assorted state DOT departments pushing for black boxes in cars on the basis of tracking milage are both going to see pushback from the general public. I've bought two new cars (and 1 used) in the last 15 years. The oldest lasted 11 years and 256000 miles. The used was a truck when I bought my house. The newest is a diesel wagon getting 40+ miles to the gallon, I don't plan on selling it anytime soon. I will be loath to add GPS for purposes of tax calculation (sure it can be done based off registration or other means -- at least the GPS data isn't there). And, I don't predict any incentive to move people from driving their own cars to self-driving cars. The above is in addition to the "independence" baked into the American culture about the open road and the automobile.

vecinu 14y ago
The above is in addition to the "independence" baked into the American culture about the open road and the automobile. Do you think there is something inherently wrong with the feeling of independence and happiness attained from the car culture in the US? I am still dubious that self-driving and non-self-driving cars will be able to share a road in the future. If this doesn't happen, I doubt Americans will freely give up their 'right' to drive the way they want.
- jmspring 14y ago
  "Do you think there is something inherently wrong with the feeling of independence and happiness attained from the car culture in the US?" Not at all. Note, I had a car that in 12 years, I put 256000 miles on, while I had a second vehicle during that time that had many miles put on it as well. I personally love road trips. One area where modern vehicles (hybrids and eventually self-driving) have no place (for now) is off roaring. Every year or two, I do road trips that include up to (and sometimes exceeding) 1000 miles off road -- not just dirt, but jeep trails, high clearance, having one person act as a spotter kind of stuff. Where my comment was directed is that all the technology in the world isn't going to do away with the car culture you point out anytime soon (probably not in my lifetime).
- sliverstorm 14y ago
  I am still dubious that self-driving and non-self-driving cars will be able to share a road in the future How exactly do you figure? You don't think regular drivers can handle a road with computer cars? Or you don't think computer cars can handle a road with people?
- warfangle 14y ago
  Not the parent, but I do think there is something inherently wrong about it. I grew up around cars, driving cars (heck, my college job was the stereotypical pizza delivery guy). I live in a metropolitan area where I can go just about anywhere I need to with the swipe of a card and waiting a few minutes on a train platform. The feeling of independence that I didn't need to worry about the CV boots on my axles screwing up and costing me hundreds in a replacement axle. The feeling of independence that I'm not contributing significantly to pollution. The feeling of independence that _getting out and walking somewhere_ gives me. The feeling of independence that I get to read a book on my commute instead of staring at the ass-end of an SUV jettisoning metric tons of fumes while in stop-and-go-traffic. Do I wish I had a car for getting out of the city and into the countryside sometimes? Well, sure. That's what zipcar is for. I _do_ admit that the feeling of driving is exhilarating. Pushing the pedal down, feeling the engine rev, connecting with the road through the tires. For the majority of uses, I can see driverless cars completely taking over. And for those who want to drive endless country roads? Well, driverless cars will probably be built to drive with the expectation that every other car on the road is being driven by a drunken teenager on a methamphetamine binge. For liability purposes. And in certain parts of the country, you can still see horse-drawn carriages clopping along the shoulder. So you'll [the quintessential driver, who just wants to drive because of some ass-backwards ideal of freedom which is actually more crippling than freeing] will be just fine. If not? Well, we have four-wheeler specific mudding "roads" out there right now, don't we? I could see the blue ridge parkway, for example, being a driver-only road (it is incredibly fun to drive).
  - overgard 14y ago
    You're lucky. It's a luxury to live in an area with effective mass transportation. A lot of people aren't so lucky. The freedom a vehicle provides those people is quite real.
    - Someone 14y ago
      Counterargument is that people exerting their freedom to own a car has built a society where areas without effective mass transportation are common, thus forcing others to also buy a car. Suburbs would have been built differently if not for private car ownership. LA would not exist in its current form.
- millstone 14y ago
  In addition to pushback about our 'right to drive the way we want' (which will inevitably be complicated by government regulations on driverless vehicles), there's the practical fact that cars that require a driver will be here for decades. My family just got rid of a '92 Volvo, and a few years back, a '67 Mustang, still street legal. If 45 year old cars are still on the road, it may be that none of us live to see the promise of a completely computer controlled system. On the other hand, a "Cash for Clunkers" on a big scale could accelerate the transition.
  - Joeri 14y ago
    Insurance premiums will probably make it a financially sound move to go driverless. Existing cars can be retrofitted.
venomsnake 14y ago
The disruption will come late to the end user. But all of fleet car - this is a god send, taxi firms without the stupid medallions, totally safe, couriers, trucking companies ... these can see a lot of value. Also there are some situations when driving a car is not an enjoyment but a chore - almost any place where traffic is heavy.
bagacrap 14y ago
you don't predict an incentive to use self driving cars? How about: 1) reducing the risk of accident and increasing safety in case of accident (you could, for example, sit in the back seat) 2) no need to find nearby parking (let the car drop you off and later pick you up) 3) ability to apply the time you would have used driving to do something useful 4) improved gas mileage from caravaning, ability to predict light timing, etc.
bcoates 14y ago
Why would the DOT want a black box? They already have reliable and difficult to circumvent revenue streams from gas taxes and registration fees. Congestion charges only make sense in extremely rare places like London, and even there they just use plate recognition.

vecinu 14y ago

The above is in addition to the "independence" baked into the American culture about the open road and the automobile. Do you think there is something inherently wrong with the feeling of independence and happiness attained from the car culture in the US? I am still dubious that self-driving and non-self-driving cars will be able to share a road in the future. If this doesn't happen, I doubt Americans will freely give up their 'right' to drive the way they want.

jmspring 14y ago
"Do you think there is something inherently wrong with the feeling of independence and happiness attained from the car culture in the US?" Not at all. Note, I had a car that in 12 years, I put 256000 miles on, while I had a second vehicle during that time that had many miles put on it as well. I personally love road trips. One area where modern vehicles (hybrids and eventually self-driving) have no place (for now) is off roaring. Every year or two, I do road trips that include up to (and sometimes exceeding) 1000 miles off road -- not just dirt, but jeep trails, high clearance, having one person act as a spotter kind of stuff. Where my comment was directed is that all the technology in the world isn't going to do away with the car culture you point out anytime soon (probably not in my lifetime).
sliverstorm 14y ago
I am still dubious that self-driving and non-self-driving cars will be able to share a road in the future How exactly do you figure? You don't think regular drivers can handle a road with computer cars? Or you don't think computer cars can handle a road with people?
warfangle 14y ago
Not the parent, but I do think there is something inherently wrong about it. I grew up around cars, driving cars (heck, my college job was the stereotypical pizza delivery guy). I live in a metropolitan area where I can go just about anywhere I need to with the swipe of a card and waiting a few minutes on a train platform. The feeling of independence that I didn't need to worry about the CV boots on my axles screwing up and costing me hundreds in a replacement axle. The feeling of independence that I'm not contributing significantly to pollution. The feeling of independence that _getting out and walking somewhere_ gives me. The feeling of independence that I get to read a book on my commute instead of staring at the ass-end of an SUV jettisoning metric tons of fumes while in stop-and-go-traffic. Do I wish I had a car for getting out of the city and into the countryside sometimes? Well, sure. That's what zipcar is for. I _do_ admit that the feeling of driving is exhilarating. Pushing the pedal down, feeling the engine rev, connecting with the road through the tires. For the majority of uses, I can see driverless cars completely taking over. And for those who want to drive endless country roads? Well, driverless cars will probably be built to drive with the expectation that every other car on the road is being driven by a drunken teenager on a methamphetamine binge. For liability purposes. And in certain parts of the country, you can still see horse-drawn carriages clopping along the shoulder. So you'll [the quintessential driver, who just wants to drive because of some ass-backwards ideal of freedom which is actually more crippling than freeing] will be just fine. If not? Well, we have four-wheeler specific mudding "roads" out there right now, don't we? I could see the blue ridge parkway, for example, being a driver-only road (it is incredibly fun to drive).
- overgard 14y ago
  You're lucky. It's a luxury to live in an area with effective mass transportation. A lot of people aren't so lucky. The freedom a vehicle provides those people is quite real.
  - Someone 14y ago
    Counterargument is that people exerting their freedom to own a car has built a society where areas without effective mass transportation are common, thus forcing others to also buy a car. Suburbs would have been built differently if not for private car ownership. LA would not exist in its current form.
millstone 14y ago
In addition to pushback about our 'right to drive the way we want' (which will inevitably be complicated by government regulations on driverless vehicles), there's the practical fact that cars that require a driver will be here for decades. My family just got rid of a '92 Volvo, and a few years back, a '67 Mustang, still street legal. If 45 year old cars are still on the road, it may be that none of us live to see the promise of a completely computer controlled system. On the other hand, a "Cash for Clunkers" on a big scale could accelerate the transition.
- Joeri 14y ago
  Insurance premiums will probably make it a financially sound move to go driverless. Existing cars can be retrofitted.

venomsnake 14y ago

The disruption will come late to the end user. But all of fleet car - this is a god send, taxi firms without the stupid medallions, totally safe, couriers, trucking companies ... these can see a lot of value. Also there are some situations when driving a car is not an enjoyment but a chore - almost any place where traffic is heavy.

bagacrap 14y ago

you don't predict an incentive to use self driving cars? How about: 1) reducing the risk of accident and increasing safety in case of accident (you could, for example, sit in the back seat) 2) no need to find nearby parking (let the car drop you off and later pick you up) 3) ability to apply the time you would have used driving to do something useful 4) improved gas mileage from caravaning, ability to predict light timing, etc.

bcoates 14y ago

Why would the DOT want a black box? They already have reliable and difficult to circumvent revenue streams from gas taxes and registration fees. Congestion charges only make sense in extremely rare places like London, and even there they just use plate recognition.