5 ms·

I think the implications are huge, but I question the 90% reduction in cars figure. While it's true that most people don't drive their car most of the time, wh

by autarch 14y ago

I think the implications are huge, but I question the 90% reduction in cars figure. While it's true that most people don't drive their car most of the time, when they do drive, most of them are driving within a relatively small time window. I could imagine a 25-50% reduction in the number of cars, but I just don't see 90% happening unless it's accompanied by a huge increase in people working from home or working non-standard hours.

rsingel 14y ago
While I agree car culture is powerful, I've been persuaded that it'll be over 50% faster than you think. The cost saving of not owning a car will become apparent quickly. Cars that can be much smaller (since you no longer buy/rent a car for the biggest task you have a year), carpooling gets MUCH simpler. It's going to reshape cities and entire industries. We'll get most of the best of cars (flexible mobility and independence) and get rid of most of the worst of them (cost, insurance, waste of public space, car-centric architecture, deaths, drunk driving, etc.). I cannot wait.
rogerbinns 14y ago
You haven't taken into account car pooling. Driverless cars can do adhoc car pooling. I can even see things like local 4 seater driverless cars picking you up, and taking you to another 10 (or more) seater vehicle for the rest of your journey. (By definition the congestion is because a lot of people have overlapping routes.) Additionally you are no longer to blame for your commute since the driverless system would be responsible for timing, in much the same way trains are to blame for timing now. I'd also expect the driverless system to have variable pricing - need to get to work by 9am instead 9.15am and it is $5 more out of your pocket. Ultimately your employer is paying that and they have an incentive to only do so if it is valuable.
- moconnor 14y ago
  Many people don't like sharing a car with strangers; I doubt this will change as quickly as the technology.
  - evoxed 14y ago
    It wouldn't be long before every car used in this way became like a small limousine. The efficiency of driverless cars would easily outweigh the cost of such a redesign.
  - azernik 14y ago
    Most of the reason for that (at least in my experience) isn't about some deep desire for privacy, but for the prosaic reason that it's a nuisance to arrange with someone else to meet at a certain time and place, to make sure that everyone in the car pool gets out of the house in the right 10 minute window, etc Being able to just call a car to drive you to work, while an automatic system figures out the car sharing arrangements in real time, could remove a lot of the barriers.
  - rogerbinns 14y ago
    Current cars are personalized which makes sense given who uses it and how much they cost. Sharing is annoying for logistical reasons and because you don't want people messing with your stuff. Driverless cars have many possible solutions. A simple one is pricing - it costs $5 more if you refuse to share. (And another $5 more if you want massage seats.) It is possible to completely partition the seats from each other so each one is effectively its own cocoon where you can play your own music as loud as you want and are completely isolated from the other passengers. Heck it is even possible like many current electrics to have a base chassis that includes the motors and batteries in the floor, and have pods that mount on top. You could have your own personalized pod you keep at home.
VMG 14y ago
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox In economics, the Jevons paradox [..] is the proposition that technological progress that increases the efficiency with which a resource is used tends to increase (rather than decrease) the rate of consumption of that resource.

by autarch 14y ago

rsingel 14y ago

While I agree car culture is powerful, I've been persuaded that it'll be over 50% faster than you think. The cost saving of not owning a car will become apparent quickly. Cars that can be much smaller (since you no longer buy/rent a car for the biggest task you have a year), carpooling gets MUCH simpler. It's going to reshape cities and entire industries. We'll get most of the best of cars (flexible mobility and independence) and get rid of most of the worst of them (cost, insurance, waste of public space, car-centric architecture, deaths, drunk driving, etc.). I cannot wait.

rogerbinns 14y ago

You haven't taken into account car pooling. Driverless cars can do adhoc car pooling. I can even see things like local 4 seater driverless cars picking you up, and taking you to another 10 (or more) seater vehicle for the rest of your journey. (By definition the congestion is because a lot of people have overlapping routes.) Additionally you are no longer to blame for your commute since the driverless system would be responsible for timing, in much the same way trains are to blame for timing now. I'd also expect the driverless system to have variable pricing - need to get to work by 9am instead 9.15am and it is $5 more out of your pocket. Ultimately your employer is paying that and they have an incentive to only do so if it is valuable.

moconnor 14y ago
Many people don't like sharing a car with strangers; I doubt this will change as quickly as the technology.
- evoxed 14y ago
  It wouldn't be long before every car used in this way became like a small limousine. The efficiency of driverless cars would easily outweigh the cost of such a redesign.
- azernik 14y ago
  Most of the reason for that (at least in my experience) isn't about some deep desire for privacy, but for the prosaic reason that it's a nuisance to arrange with someone else to meet at a certain time and place, to make sure that everyone in the car pool gets out of the house in the right 10 minute window, etc Being able to just call a car to drive you to work, while an automatic system figures out the car sharing arrangements in real time, could remove a lot of the barriers.
- rogerbinns 14y ago
  Current cars are personalized which makes sense given who uses it and how much they cost. Sharing is annoying for logistical reasons and because you don't want people messing with your stuff. Driverless cars have many possible solutions. A simple one is pricing - it costs $5 more if you refuse to share. (And another $5 more if you want massage seats.) It is possible to completely partition the seats from each other so each one is effectively its own cocoon where you can play your own music as loud as you want and are completely isolated from the other passengers. Heck it is even possible like many current electrics to have a base chassis that includes the motors and batteries in the floor, and have pods that mount on top. You could have your own personalized pod you keep at home.

VMG 14y ago

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox In economics, the Jevons paradox [..] is the proposition that technological progress that increases the efficiency with which a resource is used tends to increase (rather than decrease) the rate of consumption of that resource.